Cosmic Confusions
Not Supporting versus Supporting Not
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 10705257 |
|---|---|
| Authors | John D Norton (0000-0003-0936-5308, University of Pittsburgh, corresponding author) |
| Year | 2010 |
| Volume | 77 |
| Issue | 4 |
| Pages | 501-523 |
| Publication date | 2010-10-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Philosophy of Science (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0031-8248 • E-ISSN: 1539-767X |
| Publisher | Cambridge University Press (CUP) (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.1086/661504 |
| OpenAlex | W2116238736 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 14 |
| References cited | 12 |
Bayesian probabilistic explication of inductive inference conflates neutrality of supporting evidence for some hypothesis H (“not supporting H”) with disfavoring evidence (“supporting not-H”). This expressive inadequacy leads to spurious results that are artifacts of a poor choice of inductive logic. I illustrate how such artifacts have arisen in simple inductive inferences in cosmology. In the inductive disjunctive fallacy, neutral support for many possibilities is spuriously converted into strong support for their disjunction. The Bayesian “doomsday argument” is shown to rely entirely on a similar artifact
Algorithm · Argument (complex analysis) · Artifact (error) · Bayesian probability · Cognitive science · Epistemology · Explication · Fallacy · Inductive reasoning · Inference · Machine learning · Neutrality · Probabilistic logic · Simple (philosophy) · Sketch · Spurious relationship · Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science · Philosophy · Philosophy and History of Science · Probability and Statistical Research · Psychology · Statistical Mechanics and Entropy
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The implementation, interpretation, and justification of likelihoods in cosmology
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Eternal inflation
A-symmetric confirmation and anthropic skepticism
The Bayesian who knew too much
Author's responses
Blurring Out Cosmic Puzzles
| Unique citing works | 14 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 0.93 |
| Citation span | 2011 - 2025 (15) |
| Citation velocity | recent |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 14 |