Meeting Expectations at the 2016 Rio Olympic Games

Country Potential and Competitiveness

Bibliographic Data

ID10764965
AuthorsF Javier Otamendi (0000-0001-6064-2724, Universidad Rey Juan Carlos), Luis Miguel Doncel (0000-0002-0156-8058, Universidad Rey Juan Carlos, corresponding author), Cecilia Martín‐Gutiérrez (Junta de Castilla y León)
Year2020
Volume101
Issue2
Pages656-677
Publication date2020-03-01
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueSocial Science Quarterly (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0038-4941 • E-ISSN: 1540-6237
PublisherWiley (PUBLISHER • GB)
DOI10.1111/ssqu.12764
OpenAlexW2999885128
LanguageEN
References cited58

Objective Develop a framework to measure the extent to which countries meet their performance expectations at major sporting events using economists, experts, and fan knowledge. Method Long‐term expectations based on socioeconomic potential are calculated using sport‐agnostic econometric modeling. Short‐term expectations based on performance and competitiveness are calculated using betting odds, which incorporate both expert knowledge and “wisdom of the crowd.” Robust statistics based on the chi‐squared distribution are used to measure the extent to which countries’ expectations are met. Our method is tested using real data from the Rio 2016 Summer Olympic Games. Results Twelve countries over‐ or underperformed in terms of meeting either long‐ or short‐term expectations. Conclusions Uzbekistan was the only country that exceeded both long‐ and short‐term expectations

Distribution (mathematics) · Econometric model · Econometrics · Economics · Logistic regression · Measure (data warehouse) · Odds · Population · Socioeconomic status · Sociology · Sports economics · Statistics · Term (time) · Computer Science · Demography · Economic and Environmental Valuation · Mathematics · Sport and Mega-Event Impacts · Sports Analytics and Performance

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