The Spectre of an Asian Arms Race

Procurement programmes in Asia appear to be focused on asymmetric relationships and defensive strategies of denial rather than control. The result may not resemble the classical security dilemma. Notes1 'Vessel Carrying Vietnam's 1st Russian-made Submarine “Hanoi” Arrives in Vietnam', Xinhua, 4 January 2014, http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/photo/201401/04־/c_133017712.htm.2 John H. Herz, 'Idealist Internationalism and the Security Dilemma', World Politics, vol. 2, no. 2, January 1950, p. 157.3 The Military Balance 2013 (London: IISS/Routledge, 2013), pp. 302, 342.4 Andrew Krepinevich, Barry Watts and Robert Work, 'Meeting the Anti-Access and Area-Denial Challenge', Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, 2003.5 Ibid., p. 5.6 US Department of Defense, 'Joint Operational Access Concept', 17 January 2012, p. 6, http://www.defense.gov/pubs/pdfs/joac_jan%202012_signed.pdf.7 James R. Holmes, 'Comparing Chinese Naval Power to the Soviet Navy', Diplomat, 23 November 2012, http://thediplomat.com/2012/11/comparing-chinas-naval-rise-to-the-soviet-union/; Robert Waring Herrick, 'The USSR's “Blue Belt of Defense” Concept: A Unified Military Plan for Defense Against Seaborne Nuclear Attack by Strike Carriers and Polaris/Poseidon SSBNs', Center for Naval Analyses, May 1973, http://www.cna.org/sites/default/files/research/5500011100.pdf.8 Jonathan W. Greenert and Norton A. Schwarte, 'Air-Sea Battle', American Interest, 20 February 2012, http://www.the-american-interest.com/articles/2012/02/20/air-sea-battle/.9 Joanne Chan and Jessica Yeo, 'S'pore's First Archer-class Submarine Now in Active Service', Channel NewsAsia, 2 December 2011, http://archive.is/ieXK; 'Malaysia's Second Scorpene Commissioned in Spain', Jane's Navy International, 10 November 2009.10 For a summary of submarine procurements and regional dynamics, see Christian Le Miere, 'Waves of Concern: Southeast Asian States Plan Naval Defences', Jane's Intelligence Review, vol. 23, no. 5, April 2011.11 'Russia Floats Out Second Gepard Class Frigate for Vietnam', RIA Novosti, 16 March 2010, http://en.ria.ru/military_news/20100316/158215375.html.12 Kate Lamb, 'Indonesia, China to Sign Missile Production Agreement', Voice of America, 16 August 2012, http://www.voanews.com/content/indonesia_and_china_to_sign_missile_production_agreement/1489659.html.13 'Philippine Navy to Arm US-acquired Ships', Philippine Daily Inquirer, 10 September 2012, http://globalnation.inquirer.net/49676/philippine-navy-to-arm-us-acquired-ships; IISS, The Military Balance 2013 (Abingdon: Routledge for the IISS, 2013), p. 47.14 Jon Grevatt, 'Vietnam Negotiates for Russian Coastal Defence Systems', Jane's Defence Weekly, 15 August 2011.15 IISS, The Military Balance 2013.16 All figures on China's fleet are taken from IISS, The Military Balance 2013; and IISS, The Military Balance 2003/2004 (Oxford: Oxford University Press for the IISS, 2003).17 Rich Chang and J. Michael Cole, 'China Aiming 200 More Missiles at Taiwan: MND', Taipei Times, 4 September 2012, http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2012/09/04/2003541913.18 Yoichi Kato, 'China's New Missile Capability Raises Tensions', Asahi Shimbun, 27 January 2011.19 Ian Easton, 'The Great Game in Space: China's Evolving ASAT Weapons Programs and Their Implications for Future U.S. Strategy', Project 2049 Institute, 24 June 2009, http://project2049.net/documents/china_asat_weapons_the_great_game_in_space.pdf.20 For a description of offshore active defence, see Alexander Chieh- cheng Huang, 'The Chinese Navy's Offshore Active Defense Strategy: Conceptualization and Implications', Naval War College Review, vol. 47, no. 3, Summer 1994.21 Mrityunjoy Mazumdar, 'Chinese Yards Launch Two Type 056 Light Frigates', Jane's Defence Weekly, 6 June 2012.22 Ted Parsons, 'Images Emerge of Chinese Y-8 MPA Variant', Jane's Navy International, 24 November 2011.23 J. Michael Cole, 'China “Developing” Navalised Version of DH-10 Cruise Missile', Jane's Defence Weekly, 2 August 2012.24 J. Michael Cole, 'China Building New Type 052D Guided Missile Destroyer', Taipei Times, 29 August 2012, http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2012/08/29/2003541468.25 US Department of Defense, 'Sustaining U.S. Global Leadership: Priorities for 21st Century Defense', January 2012, http://www.defense.gov/news/defense_strategic_guidance.pdf. Emphasis in original.26 Hillary Clinton, 'America's Pacific Century', Foreign Policy, 11 October 2011, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/10/11/americas_pacific_century#sthash.VyHcwSCV.dpbs.27 Jackie Calmes, 'A U.S. Marine Base for Australia Irritates China', New York Times, 16 November 2011, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/17/world/asia/obama-and-gillard-expand-us-australia-military-ties.html.28 William Wan, 'Defense Secretary Leon Panetta Highlights U.S. Ties to Vietnam During Visit', Washington Post, 3 June 2012, http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/defense-secretary-leon-panetta-highlights-us-ties-to-vietnam-during-visit/2012/06/03/gJQAOWcLBV_story.html; Dona Z. Pazzibugan, '2nd US warship Sold to Philippines also Stripped of Guns', Philippine Daily Inquirer, 22 May 2012, http://globalnation.inquirer.net/37511/2nd-us-warship-sold-to-philippines-also-stripped-of-guns.29 US Department of Defense, 'Joint Operational Access Concept', p. 30.30 International Crisis Group, 'Armenia and Azerbaijan: Preventing War', 8 February 2011, p. 5, http://www.crisisgroup.org/~/media/Files/europe/caucasus/B60 Armenia and Azerbaijan — Preventing War.Additional informationChristian Le Miere is Senior Fellow for Naval Forces and Maritime Security at the IISS

Arms race · Economics · Political economy · Political science · Race (biology · Sociology · Defense, Military, and Policy Studies · Gender Studies

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