Divergent trajectories of Arctic change
Implications for future socio-economic patterns
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 10887327 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Abbie Tingstad (0009-0008-4864-5402, United States Coast Guard Academy, corresponding author), Kristin Van Abel (RAND Corporation), M M Bennett (0000-0003-1897-1334, University of Washington), Isabelle Winston (RAND Corporation), Lawson W Brigham (Utah AIDS Foundation), Scott R Stephenson (0000-0003-4143-2670, RAND Corporation), Margaret Wilcox, Michael D Wilcox (RAND Corporation), Stéphanie Pézard (RAND Corporation) |
| Year | 2025 |
| Volume | 54 |
| Issue | 2 |
| Pages | 239-255 |
| Publication date | 2025-02-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | AMBIO (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0044-7447 • E-ISSN: 1654-7209 |
| Publisher | Springer Science and Business Media LLC (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.1007/s13280-024-02080-x |
| PMID | 39476309 |
| OpenAlex | W4403886293 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 2 |
| References cited | 53 |
Climate change is causing rapid warming in the Arctic, which, alongside other physical, socio-economic, cultural, geopolitical, and technological factors, is driving change in the far north. This research presents a conceptual model summarizing Arctic change factors which in turn was used in the design of a Delphi exercise which leveraged a variety of experts to forecast trajectories in different parts of the Arctic. Based on these experts’ expectations for economic and governance outcomes by 2050, we find that our results illustrate the “many Arctics” concept or some of the ways in which the Arctic is heterogenous now, and perhaps becoming increasingly so in the future. Sub-regions of the Arctic differed in expert expectations about the future of resource extraction, tourism, Indigenous self-determination, and military activity, among other outcomes. This work also discusses the post-2022 geopolitical situation and some potential implications of “many Arctics” for policy and future governance
Arctic · Business · Climate change · Corporate governance · Delphi method · Economics · Environmental planning · Environmental resource management · Geography · Geopolitics · Indigenous · Political science · Politics · Regional science · Resource (disambiguation · The arctic · Tourism · Variety (cybernetics · Work (physics · Arctic and Antarctic ice dynamics · Arctic and Russian Policy Studies · Computer Science · Ecology · Engineering · Indigenous Studies and Ecology
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| Unique citing works | 2 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 2 |
| Citation span | 2025 - 2025 (1) |
| Citation velocity | recent |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 2 |