Research Note
A Novel Sullivan Method Projection Framework With Application to Long Covid
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 10967686 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Cayley Ryan-Claytor (0009-0002-5728-4975, Department of Sociology and Criminology, and Population Research Institute, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA, corresponding author), A M Verdery (0000-0003-1005-7580, Department of Sociology and Criminology, and Population Research Institute, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA) |
| Year | 2024 |
| Volume | 61 |
| Issue | 2 |
| Pages | 267-281 |
| Publication date | 2024-04-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Demography (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0070-3370 • E-ISSN: 1533-7790 |
| Publisher | Duke University Press (PUBLISHER • US) |
| DOI | 10.1215/00703370-11226858 |
| PMID | 38477520 |
| OpenAlex | W4392749957 |
| Language | EN |
| References cited | 31 |
Originally developed for estimating healthy life expectancy, the traditional Sullivan method continues to be a popular tool for obtaining point-in-time estimates of the population impacts of a wide range of health and social conditions. However, except in rare data-intensive cases, the method is subject to stringent stationarity assumptions, which often do not align with real-world conditions and restrict its resulting estimates and applications. In this research note, we present an expansion of the original method to apply within a population projection framework. The Sullivan method projection framework produces estimates that offer new insights about future trends in population health and social arrangements under various demographic and epidemiologic scenarios, such as the percentage of life years that population members can expect to spend with a condition of interest in a time interval under different assumptions. We demonstrate the utility of this framework using the case of long COVID, illustrating both its operation and potential to reveal insights about emergent population health challenges under various theoretically informed scenarios. The traditional Sullivan method provides a summary measure of the present, while its incorporation into a projection framework enables preparation for a variety of potential futures
Data science · Econometrics · Economics · Futures contract · Life expectancy · Population · Population growth · Population projection · Projection (relational algebra · Range (aeronautics · Sociology · Variety (cybernetics · Artificial Intelligence · Climate Change and Health Impacts · Computer Science · COVID-19 epidemiological studies · Demography · Engineering · Global Health Care Issues
A Single Index of Mortality and Morbidity
Long Covid or post-Covid-19 syndrome
On the Estimation of Disability-Free Life Expectancy
Estimates of the severity of coronavirus disease 2019
A probabilistic projection of beneficiaries of long-term care insurance in Germany by severity of disability
Visualizing Age, Period, and Cohort Patterns of Substance Use in the U.S. Opioid Crisis
Years of life lost to incarceration
Trends in Working Life Expectancy in Europe
Modeling and Forecasting Health Expectancy
The Long Arm of Conflict
Applied Mathematical Demography (Statistics for Biology and Health)
The Cohort as a Concept in the Study of Social Change
Long-Term Trends in Life Expectancy and Active Life Expectancy in the United States
Windows of Vulnerability
Demography, Measuring and Modeling Population Processes
The Age-Period-Cohort-Interaction Model for Describing and Investigating Inter-cohort Deviations and Intra-cohort Life-course Dynamics
The Changing Demography of Grandparenthood
| Citation velocity | historical |
|---|---|
| Highly cited | No |