A discrete-time two-sex age-specific stochastic population program incorporating marriage

Datos Bibliográficos

ID10969398
AutoresJ H Pollard (Macquarie University, autor de correspondencia)
Año1969
Volumen6
Número2
Páginas185-221
Fecha de publicación1969-05-01
Peer ReviewedSí
Open AccessSí
TipoARTICLE
RevistaDemography (JOURNAL)
Identificadores de la revistaISSN: 0070-3370 • E-ISSN: 1533-7790
EditorialDuke University Press (PUBLISHER • US)
DOI10.2307/2060391
OpenAlexW2088263588
IdiomaEN
Citas recibidas4
Referencias citadas14

A discrete-time two-sex stochastic population model is developed. All entities (single males, single females, or couples) are grouped according to their ages, and during a unit time interval, each entity has a choice of several outcomes with fixed conditional probabilities. The model assumes that the number of marriages between men aged x and women aged y is equal to the minimum of the number of men aged x desiring marriage with a woman aged y and the number of women aged y desiring marriage with a man aged x. It follows that if a large excess of males of a11 ages is maintained in the population, the female component grows as a multi-type Galton-Watson process. Under such circumstances, the females have perfect freedom in their choice of marriage partner, and the use of a multi-type Galton-Watson process is very realistic. The same result is true for the male component of the population. Ir there are no males (or females) , no marriages take place, so the model is realistic on this score also. A complex computer program is described, and a detailed numerical example given

Combinatorics · Component (thermodynamics · Interval (graph theory · Population · Sociology · Statistics · Demography · Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models · Mathematics · Statistical Distribution Estimation and Applications · Stochastic processes and statistical mechanics