From Malthusian Disequilibrium to the Post-Malthusian Era

The Evolution of the Preventive and Positive Checks in Germany, 1730–1870

Bibliographic Data

ID10970397
AuthorsUlrich Pfister (0000-0001-7489-7509, University of Münster, corresponding author), Georg Fertig (0000-0002-3581-8094, University of Halle-Wittenberg, Institute of History, Steintorcampus, 06099, Halle (Saale), Germany)
Year2020
Volume57
Issue3
Pages1145-1170
Publication date2020-06-01
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueDemography (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0070-3370 • E-ISSN: 1533-7790
PublisherDuke University Press (PUBLISHER • US)
DOI10.1007/s13524-020-00872-w
PMID32367348
OpenAlexW3023330839
LanguageEN
Citations received5
References cited40

This study draws on a new data set of vital rates and real wages to explore short-term and long-term behavior of the preventive and positive checks in a major economy of premodern mainland Europe. Four results stand out. First, the preventive check was fairly stable throughout the period 1730–1870; its magnitude of 0.2 to 0.35 was comparable with that of England, northern and central Italy, and Sweden. Second, the eighteenth century was characterized by Malthusian disequilibrium in that there was no long-term relationship between the crude death rate and the real wage, whereas the crude death rate’s instantaneous response to income changes was a substantial –0.4. Third, the short-term positive check may have weakened over the eighteenth century and largely disappeared in the 1810s. The diversification of food risk resulting from the spread of potato cultivation, market integration, and the development of the nonagricultural sectors are potential explanations of the demise and disappearance of the positive check. Fourth, between the 1810s and the 1860s, vital rates and the real wage were stationary, which is consistent with a post-Malthusian regime in which technological progress depended on population size. The 1810s marked the time when Germany transited from a Malthusian regime in disequilibrium to the post-Malthusian era

Demise · Demographic economics · Disequilibrium · Diversification (marketing strategy · Economics · Labour economics · Population · Wage · Culture, Economy, and Development Studies · Demography · Economics of Agriculture and Food Markets · Historical Economic and Social Studies · Medicine

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