The Association Between Vacant Lot Redevelopment and Violent/Firearm Violent Crime

A Difference-in-Difference Analysis From 2007 to 2023

Bibliographic Data

ID11028595
AuthorsNicole Asa (0000-0002-3334-1704, Nicole Asa and Ali Rowhani-Rahbar are with the Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of Washington, and the Firearm Injury and Policy Research Program, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle. Hiwot Y. Zewdie was with the Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of Washington, Seattle, at the time of this study. Bradley H. Wagenaar is with the Department of Epidemiology and the Department of Global Health, School of Public Health, University of), Hiwot Y Zewdie (0000-0003-1642-1574, Nicole Asa and Ali Rowhani-Rahbar are with the Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of Washington, and the Firearm Injury and Policy Research Program, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle. Hiwot Y. Zewdie was with the Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of Washington, Seattle, at the time of this study. Bradley H. Wagenaar is with the Department of Epidemiology and the Department of Global Health, School of Public Health, University of), Ali Rowhani-Rahbar (0000-0002-2705-4485, Nicole Asa and Ali Rowhani-Rahbar are with the Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of Washington, and the Firearm Injury and Policy Research Program, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle. Hiwot Y. Zewdie was with the Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of Washington, Seattle, at the time of this study. Bradley H. Wagenaar is with the Department of Epidemiology and the Department of Global Health, School of Public Health, University of), Bradley H Wagenaar (0000-0002-3351-7175, Nicole Asa and Ali Rowhani-Rahbar are with the Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of Washington, and the Firearm Injury and Policy Research Program, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle. Hiwot Y. Zewdie was with the Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of Washington, Seattle, at the time of this study. Bradley H. Wagenaar is with the Department of Epidemiology and the Department of Global Health, School of Public Health, University of), Stephen J Mooney (0000-0003-3332-7088, Nicole Asa and Ali Rowhani-Rahbar are with the Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of Washington, and the Firearm Injury and Policy Research Program, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle. Hiwot Y. Zewdie was with the Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of Washington, Seattle, at the time of this study. Bradley H. Wagenaar is with the Department of Epidemiology and the Department of Global Health, School of Public Health, University of)
Year2026
Volume116
Issue1
Pages95-102
Publication date2026-01-01
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessNo
TypeARTICLE
VenueAmerican Journal of Public Health (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0090-0036 • E-ISSN: 1541-0048
PublisherAmerican Public Health Association (PUBLISHER • US)
DOI10.2105/ajph.2025.308269
PMID41129778
OpenAlexW4415484375
LanguageEN
Citations received1
References cited30

Objectives. To investigate the association between vacant lot redevelopment and violent crime and firearm violent crime. Methods. We used a quasi-experimental study with a difference-in-difference (DID) design. The study population was 254 vacant lots located in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The exposure was redevelopment, defined as repurposing the vacant lot into a permanent structure (e.g., housing) between 2007 and 2023. The outcome was violent crime subtypes and firearm violent crime subtypes reported to the police. Our primary analysis used a staggered DID estimator. Results. We found a negative association between redevelopment and aggravated assault (DID = −56.55 crimes per square mile per year; 95% confidence interval [CI] = −97.86, −15.24), firearm aggravated assault (DID = −35.11 crimes per square mile per year; 95% CI = −55.41, −14.82), and overall firearm violent crime (DID = −27.26 crimes per square mile per year; 95% CI = −52.97, −1.54). We did not find significant associations for the other outcomes tested. Conclusions. Our results support the hypothesis that vacant lot redevelopment may prevent or displace violent crime. Public Health Implications. Built environment investments may prevent or displace violence. ( Am J Public Health. 2026;116(1):95–102. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2025.308269 )

Injury prevention · Mile · Occupational safety and health · Poison control · Redevelopment · Suicide prevention · Violent crime · Climate Change and Health Impacts · Health disparities and outcomes · Traffic and Road Safety

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