Estimating clinical morbidity due to ischemic heart disease and congestive heart failure
The future rise of heart failure
Datos Bibliográficos
| ID | 11034839 |
|---|---|
| Autores | Luc Bonneux (Erasmus MC), Jan J Barendregt (Erasmus MC), K Meeter (Erasmus MC), Gouke J Bonsel (0000-0002-8364-1086, Erasmus MC), P J Van Der Maas (Erasmus MC) |
| Año | 1994 |
| Volumen | 84 |
| Número | 1 |
| Páginas | 20-28 |
| Fecha de publicación | 1994-01-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Sí |
| Open Access | No |
| Tipo | ARTICLE |
| Revista | American Journal of Public Health (JOURNAL) |
| Identificadores de la revista | ISSN: 0090-0036 • E-ISSN: 1541-0048 |
| Editorial | American Public Health Association (PUBLISHER • US) |
| DOI | 10.2105/ajph.84.1.20 |
| PMID | 8279606 |
| OpenAlex | W2153721737 |
| Idioma | EN |
| Citas recibidas | 15 |
| Referencias citadas | 31 |
OBJECTIVES. Many developed countries have seen declining mortality rates for heart disease, together with an alleged decline in incidence and a seemingly paradoxical increase in health care demands. This paper presents a model for forecasting the plausible evolution of heart disease morbidity. METHODS. The simulation model combines data from different sources. It generates acute coronary event and mortality rates from published data on incidences, recurrences, and lethalities of different heart disease conditions and interventions. Forecasts are based on plausible scenarios for declining incidence and increasing survival. RESULTS. Mortality is postponed more than incidence. Prevalence rates of morbidity will decrease among the young and middle-aged but increase among the elderly. As the milder disease states act as risk factors for the more severe states, effects will culminate in the most severe disease states with a disproportionate increase in older people. CONCLUSIONS. Increasing health care needs in the face of declining mortality rates are no contradiction, but reflect a tradeoff of mortality for morbidity. The aging of the population will accentuate this morbidity increase
Cardiology · Disease · Environmental health · Health care · Heart disease · Heart failure · Incidence (geometry) · Intensive care medicine · Mortality rate · Population · Psychiatry · Psychological intervention · Cardiovascular Health and Risk Factors · Chronic Disease Management Strategies · Demography · Heart Failure Treatment and Management · Internal Medicine · Medicine · Gerontology
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| Obras citantes distintas | 15 |
|---|---|
| Citas por año | 0,47 |
| Intervalo de citas | 1994 - 2018 (25) |
| Velocidad de citación | historical |
| Altamente citado | No |
| Tipos de cita | Neutras: 14 |