Risk, race, and predictive policing

A critical race theory analysis of the strategic subject list

Bibliographic Data

ID11054705
AuthorsAndrea L DaViera (0000-0003-4235-0597, Psychology Department University of Illinois Chicago Chicago Illinois USA, corresponding author), Marbella Uriostegui (0000-0001-6225-598X, Applied Research & Equitable Evaluation Education Northwest Portland Oregon USA), Aaron Gottlieb (0000-0001-9018-2263, Crown Family School of Social Work, Policy, and Practice University of Chicago Chicago Illinois USA), Ogechi “cynthia” Onyeka (0000-0002-9110-2090, Psychiatry & Behavioral Sciences Baylor College of Medicine Houston Texas USA)
Year2024
Volume73
Issue1-2
Pages91-103
Publication date2024-03-01
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueAmerican Journal of Community Psychology (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0091-0562 • E-ISSN: 1573-2770
PublisherWiley (PUBLISHER • GB)
DOI10.1002/ajcp.12671
PMID37067014
OpenAlexW4366083553
LanguageEN
Citations received5
References cited49

Predictive policing is a tool used increasingly by police departments that may exacerbate entrenched racial/ethnic disparities in the Prison Industrial Complex (PIC). Using a Critical Race Theory framework, we analyzed arrest data from a predictive policing program, the Strategic Subject List (SSL), and questioned how the SSL risk score (i.e., calculated risk for gun violence perpetration or victimization) predicts the arrested individual's race/ethnicity while accounting for local spatial conditions, including poverty and racial composition. Using multinomial logistic regression with community area fixed effects, results indicate that the risk score predicts the race/ethnicity of the arrested person while accounting for spatial context. As such, despite claims of scientific objectivity, we provide empirical evidence that the algorithmically‐derived risk variable is racially biased. We discuss our study in the context of how the SSL reinforces a pseudoscientific justification of the PIC and call for the abolition of these tools broadly

Criminology · Health psychology · Public health · Race (biology) · Sociology · Subject (documents) · Computer Science · Crime Patterns and Interventions · Gender Studies · Medicine · Policing Practices and Perceptions · Psychology · Social and Intergroup Psychology · Social Psychology