Japan

JAPAN IS in the middle of its worst post-World War II political crisis, a constitutional impasse that is not likely to be resolved for many months, or even years. The socalled Lockheed scandal-the payment of some $1.3 million in bribes by the US aircraft company to Japanese politicians-is only the tip of the iceberg. More basic is the long-term erosion in the popularity of the ruling conservative Liberal Democratic Party, and the absence of any effective opposition political force as an alternative. Indeed, this is what distinguishes the current Japanese political malaise from similar problems in Western Europe. There is simply no other party ready, willing, and able to take over. Certainly the Japanese Communist Party, which is now attempting to shed its Marxist-Leninist image by ostensibly abandoning such doctrinal aims as the dictatorship of the proletariat, and which maintains a certain distance from both Moscow and Peking, is nowhere near the threshold of power. It is not even the second largest party. The fight for control of what is left of the Liberal Democratic Party, even if it does not result in an immediate split between Prime Minister Miki and his rivals, is bound to be indecisive. No matter who wins from among the present candidates for leadership, there is no charismatic figure who can overcome its difficulties to the extent of assuring another long period of solid conservative rule. What seems most likely in this extremely volatile situation is a period-at least until the elections of 1980-of relatively weak conservative government, perhaps with the LDP depending for survival on the support of shifting alliances with cliques among the minor parties. Does that mean that one must be pessimistic about Japan? Not necessarily. The present threshing about in Japanese politics is likely to result in two things. One is an eventual restructuring of the Japanese political scene, with a strong prospect for the emergence of a new

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