A decade of grade inflation boosted by the Covid ‐19 pandemic—An empirical analysis of a top European university
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 11160475 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Maxime François (0000-0003-1079-5866, Leuven Economics of Education Research KU Leuven Leuven Belgium, corresponding author), Kristof De Witte (0000-0003-0505-8642, Leuven Economics of Education Research KU Leuven Leuven Belgium) |
| Year | 2025 |
| Volume | 51 |
| Issue | 5 |
| Pages | 2271-2339 |
| Publication date | 2025-10-01 |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | British Educational Research Journal (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0141-1926 • E-ISSN: 1469-3518 |
| Publisher | Wiley (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1002/berj.4172 |
| OpenAlex | W4409235431 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 2 |
| References cited | 47 |
The observed decline in academic performance among 15‐year‐old students, as reported by recent OECD‐PISA surveys, alongside the democratisation of university admissions, points to a potential decrease in the marginal academic proficiency of incoming higher education students. Paradoxically, grades at the tertiary level have either remained stable or risen, suggesting the presence of grade inflation, i.e. a relaxation in grading standards. This trend may have been amplified by the ‘tolerance’ or ‘grade leniency’ requested during the COVID‐19 pandemic. This paper explores three key areas: first, the existence and degree of grade inflation from 2012 to 2022; second, whether the pandemic exacerbated this inflation; and third, the effect of lenient grading on student outcomes, including pass rates, exam participation, graduation likelihood and dropout rates. Drawing on data from 28,520 students across 2000 courses at a major European university with an open admission policy, panel data fixed effects models reveal an average modest trend of grade of inflation (around 0.012–0.024 standard deviations), which significantly accelerated during the pandemic years, with increases reaching nearly 10 times the usual rate. A Coarsened Exact Matching analysis, used to account for shifts in student demographics and abilities over time, shows significant differences between weak (i.e. individuals with an average number of retake exams above 1.5 or bottom 40% of the grade distribution) and strong students (i.e. average number of retake exams below 1.2 or top 35% of the grade distribution). Grade inflation primarily benefited weaker students, while stronger ones remain unaffected
2019-20 coronavirus outbreak · Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) · Economics · Inflation (cosmology) · Mathematics education · Pandemic · Physics · Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) · Evaluation of Teaching Practices · Higher Education Governance and Development · Internal Medicine · Medical Education and Admissions · Medicine · Psychology · Virology
Pisa 2022 Results (Volume I)
(Biased) Grading of Students’ Performance
Test Scores, Subjective Assessment, and Stereotyping of Ethnic Minorities
Influence of Covid-19 confinement on students’ performance in higher education
Undergraduate Biology Students Received Higher Grades During Covid-19 but Perceived Negative Effects on Learning
Digital University Teaching and Learning in Management—The Gini from the Covid-19 Bottle and Its Empirical Representations in Germany
Exploring the effects of the Covid-19 emergency remote education on students’ social and academic integration in higher education in Austria
Online teaching, procrastination and student achievement
Under pressure
Class size effects in higher education
Limited contracts, limited quality? effects of adjunct instructors on student outcomes☆
Did the Covid-19 pandemic lead to an increase in academic misconduct in higher education
Biased grades? Changes in grading after a blinding of examinations reform
Grade inflation versus grade improvement
Comparing teacher and external assessments
The determinants of undergraduate degree performance
Social inequalities in attaining higher education in Scotland
A social inequality of motivation? The relationship between beliefs about academic success and young people's educational attainment
The impact of Covid‐19 on A Level exams in England
The effect of school closures on standardised student test outcomes
Herding Cats? Management and University Performance
Heterogeneous Class Size Effects
Grade inflation in UK higher education
| Citations per year | 2 |
|---|---|
| Citation span | 2026 - 2026 (1) |
| Highly cited | No |