Estimating the risk of post-Covid condition in deprived communities, migrants and ethnic minorities in England

Findings from Virus Watch—a prospective community cohort study

Bibliographic Data

ID11178564
AuthorsWing Lam Erica Fong (0000-0001-5097-2228, Institute of Health Informatics, University College London, London, UK, corresponding author), Sarah Beale (0000-0002-4038-7460, Institute of Health Informatics, University College London, London, UK), Vincent Nguyen (0000-0002-9776-6242, Institute of Health Informatics, University College London, London, UK), Jana Kovar (0000-0002-0477-2767, Institute of Health Informatics, University College London, London, UK), Alexei Yavlinsky (0000-0002-4100-4257, Institute of Health Informatics, University College London, London, UK), Andrew Hayward (0000-0002-3549-6232, University College London), Andrew C Hayward (Institute of Epidemiology and Health Care, University College London, London, UK), Ibrahim Abubakar (0000-0002-0370-1430, Faculty of Population Health, University College London, London, UK), Sander M J van Kuijk (0000-0003-2796-729X, Maastricht University Medical Centre), Sander MJ van Kuijk (Department of Clinical Epidemiology and Medical Technology Assessment, Maastricht University Medical Centre (MUMC), Maastricht, The Netherlands), Robert W Aldridge (0000-0003-0542-0816, Institute of Health Informatics, University College London, London, UK)
Year2026
Volume80
Issue2
Pages114-121
Publication date2026-02-01
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueJournal of Epidemiology and Community Health (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0143-005X • E-ISSN: 1470-2738
PublisherBMJ (PUBLISHER • GB)
DOI10.1136/jech-2024-223491
PMID40623808
OpenAlexW4412090355
LanguageEN
Citations received2
References cited33

BACKGROUND: Deprived communities, migrants and ethnic minorities were disproportionately affected by COVID-19 and may, therefore, be at a higher risk of post-COVID condition (PCC). This analysis, using data from the Virus Watch study, investigates how deprivation, migration status and ethnic minority status influence PCC risk in both the full cohort (all regardless of infection status) and those with a confirmed COVID-19 infection. METHODS: A subset of participants from Virus Watch, a prospective community cohort study in England, were included. We used logistic regression to compare the predicted probability of developing PCC in both full and infected cohorts among different deprivation levels, migration and ethnic minority status categories by sex-at-birth during pre-Omicron and Omicron periods, adjusting for sociodemographic covariates. RESULTS: During the pre-Omicron period, PCC probability increased with deprivation levels, especially in females (most deprived: 7.8%, 95% CI 4.6% to 11.0%; least deprived: 3.5%, 2.5%-4.5%). Migrant and ethnic minority males had a higher likelihood of PCC than their respective counterparts, particularly in the full cohort for migrants (6.3%, 1.8%-10.8%) and the previously infected cohort for ethnic minorities (38.8%, 21.2%-56.4%). However, these disparities were less pronounced in females. In the Omicron period, these differential probabilities were also less evident. CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest that greater PCC probability among these populations is driven by increased infection risk and postinfection determinants. This underscores the need for policies and interventions to reduce infection risk and affordable and easily available healthcare services for those with PCC

Cohort · Cohort study · Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) · Disease · Ethnic group · Logistic regression · Political science · Prospective cohort study · Psychological intervention · Sociology · COVID-19 and Mental Health · COVID-19 Clinical Research Studies · COVID-19 epidemiological studies · Demography · Internal Medicine · Medicine