Scaling Covid-19 against inequalities

Should the policy response consistently match the mortality challenge

Bibliographic Data

ID11180467
AuthorsGerry Mccartney (0000-0001-6341-3521, Place and Wellbeing Directorate, Public Health Scotland, Glasgow, UK, corresponding author), Alastair H Leyland (0000-0003-3741-7099, MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit), Alastair Leyland (MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK), D Walsh (0000-0002-3390-5039, Glasgow Centre for Population Health), Ruth Dundas (0000-0002-3836-4286, MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK)
Year2021
Volume75
Issue4
Pages315-320
Publication date2021-04-01
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueJournal of Epidemiology and Community Health (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0143-005X • E-ISSN: 1470-2738
PublisherBMJ (PUBLISHER • GB)
DOI10.1136/jech-2020-214373
PMID33144334
OpenAlexW3094782037
LanguageEN
Citations received8
References cited12

Background The mortality impact of COVID-19 has thus far been described in terms of crude death counts. We aimed to calibrate the scale of the modelled mortality impact of COVID-19 using age-standardised mortality rates and life expectancy contribution against other, socially determined, causes of death in order to inform governments and the public. Methods We compared mortality attributable to suicide, drug poisoning and socioeconomic inequality with estimates of mortality from an infectious disease model of COVID-19. We calculated age-standardised mortality rates and life expectancy contributions for the UK and its constituent nations. Results Mortality from a fully unmitigated COVID-19 pandemic is estimated to be responsible for a negative life expectancy contribution of −5.96 years for the UK. This is reduced to −0.33 years in the fully mitigated scenario. The equivalent annual life expectancy contributions of suicide, drug poisoning and socioeconomic inequality-related deaths are −0.25, −0.20 and −3.51 years, respectively. The negative impact of fully unmitigated COVID-19 on life expectancy is therefore equivalent to 24 years of suicide deaths, 30 years of drug poisoning deaths and 1.7 years of inequality-related deaths for the UK. Conclusion Fully mitigating COVID-19 is estimated to prevent a loss of 5.63 years of life expectancy for the UK. Over 10 years, there is a greater negative life expectancy contribution from inequality than around six unmitigated COVID-19 pandemics. To achieve long-term population health improvements it is therefore important to take this opportunity to introduce post-pandemic economic policies to ‘build back better’

2019-20 coronavirus outbreak · Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) · Disease · Econometrics · Inequality · Mathematical analysis · Outbreak · Physics · Scaling · Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) · Statistical physics · COVID-19 and healthcare impacts · Employment and Welfare Studies · Global Health Care Issues · Internal Medicine · Mathematics · Medicine · Virology

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