Does the method for Military Utility Assessment of Future Technologies provide utility

Bibliographic Data

ID11237396
AuthorsStefan Silfverskiöld (0000-0002-2127-572X, Swedish Defence University, corresponding author), Kent Andersson (0000-0001-6104-5788, Swedish Defence University), Martin Lundmark (0000-0002-1197-8173, Swedish Defence University)
Year2021
Volume67
Pages101736
Publication date2021-11-01
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueTechnology in Society (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0160-791X • E-ISSN: 1879-3274
PublisherElsevier BV (PUBLISHER)
DOI10.1016/j.techsoc.2021.101736
OpenAlexW3199298375
LanguageEN
Citations received1
References cited13

The Military Utility Assessment of Future Technologies (MUAFT) method was developed as a cost-efficient alternative to methods such as NATO's Disruptive Technology Assessment Games, to be used as a part of the Swedish Armed Forces' long-term capability development process. The question addressed in this study is whether MUAFT can be considered to have validity in its context and thus if it has potential to be useful to other small to medium size states. The analysis was based on an operationalization of Clark's framework for science and technology intelligence analysis, combined with a military capability centric view of military utility. MUAFT reports from 2012 to 2018 were reviewed in terms of how they satisfy five key criteria. The study shows that MUAFT provides utility, if used by a suitably composed group of experts, who are aware of the method's limitations. The limitations mainly originate from a lack of explicit support for assessing the impact of forces for change, other than technological forces, on military capability development. The expert group serves as the synthesizing bridge between technology forecasts and military utility assessments. Therefore, comprehensive expertise is needed in various military technology specialisations, in the sponsor's military capabilities and in subjects necessary to master in order to assess other influential societal forces for change

Bridge (graph theory · Business · Context (archaeology · Economics · Management science · Operationalization · Operations research · Order (exchange · Political science · Risk analysis (engineering · Technology assessment · Technology forecasting · Computer Science · Engineering · Global Energy and Sustainability Research · Innovation Diffusion and Forecasting · Law · Technology Assessment and Management · Artificial Intelligence

Tools

Open DOIOpen Access