Changes in Fertility Trends and Women’s Fertility Desires in the Wake of the Homicide Surge in Mexico

Bibliographic Data

ID11291031
AuthorsGinevra Floridi (0000-0003-1417-2631, University of Edinburgh, corresponding author), Maria Gargiulo (0000-0003-1870-8990, University of London), José Manuel Aburto (0000-0002-2926-6879, University of London)
Year2026
Volume45
Issue2
Pages17-17
Publication date2026-04-01
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenuePopulation Research and Policy Review (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0167-5923 • E-ISSN: 1573-7829
PublisherSpringer Science and Business Media LLC (PUBLISHER)
DOI10.1007/s11113-026-09999-x
PMID41853694
OpenAlexW7137145668
LanguageEN
References cited71

Since 2006, Mexico has experienced a surge in homicides due to national policies and international influences on drug trafficking activities. Although the effects of the so-called “Drug War” have been extensively studied in demography and social science research, whether and how the increase in homicides has affected fertility is poorly understood. This study provides a comprehensive account of the association between homicides and changes in fertility rates and desires in Mexico. Using population-level administrative data on births, deaths, and homicides for 2443 municipalities, we apply fixed-effects models and a staggered difference-in-differences estimator to study the effect of homicidal violence on total fertility rate (TFR), crude birth rate (CBR), and birth counts across Mexican municipalities between 2000 and 2020. Then, using random-intercept and fixed-effects models, we analyze the association between changes in homicide rates and fertility desires for 6341 women from the Mexican Family Life Survey (2002–2012). Our findings show very small negative associations, and no overall effect of homicides on fertility for the period considered. Similarly, we find no association between municipality-level homicide rates and fertility desires, consistently by education, age, and parity. Our results show remarkable continuity in the Mexican fertility decline despite the rapid escalation of violence

Birth rate · Fertility · Homicide · Injury prevention · Poison control · Suicide prevention · Survey data collection · Total fertility rate · Family Dynamics and Relationships · Homicide, Infanticide, and Child Abuse · Intimate Partner and Family Violence

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