Partisan Divergence in Fertility Change Before and During the Covid-19 Pandemic in Florida
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 11291096 |
|---|---|
| Authors | H M Rackin (0000-0002-9017-6637, Louisiana State University, corresponding author), C Gibson-Davis (0000-0002-8286-6494, Public Policy Institute of California), Christina M Gibson-Davis, Courtney E Williams (0000-0002-7173-8147, The University of Texas at Austin), Dustin Hughes, D J Hughes (0000-0002-7307-5690, Western Washington University), Seunghwan Yoo (0009-0001-2289-6595), Seung‐Hwan Yoo (0000-0003-1135-4931, Louisiana State University) |
| Year | 2025 |
| Volume | 44 |
| Issue | 5 |
| Publication date | 2025-10-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Population Research and Policy Review (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0167-5923 • E-ISSN: 1573-7829 |
| Publisher | Springer Science and Business Media LLC (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.1007/s11113-025-09972-0 |
| OpenAlex | W4414183970 |
| Language | EN |
| References cited | 45 |
Motivated by political-based differences in pandemic perceptions, this study analyzed whether Republican- and Democratic-leaning counties exhibited differential fertility shifts, leading to a partisan fertility gap. As COVID-19 emerged, the political right dismissed the threat of the virus, while the political left emphasized it as a major crisis. These contrasting views may have led to diverging fertility responses between those living in Democratic- and Republican-leaning areas. Using county-level data from Florida, difference-in-difference models predicted quarterly change in fertility rates between 2018 and 2022. Models estimated the partisan fertility gap (e.g., Republican-Democratic difference in fertility rate changes relative to before the pandemic) as a function of 2020 Trump vote share. The partisan fertility gap widened during the pandemic’s early months, as fertility in Republican-leaning counties declined less than in Democratic-leaning counties. This gap was only observed for White women and was robust to controlling on time-varying potential confounders (unemployment rate and racial composition changes). The partisan gap was short-lived, however. Results suggest that politically-charged contexts where would-be-parents lived may have affected pandemic-induced fertility shocks and demonstrates the need to understand fertility changes in the context of the broader political environment—a vital endeavor given record-low fertility and unprecedented political polarization in the United States
Context (archaeology · Fertility · Pandemic · Politics · Sub-replacement fertility · Total fertility rate · Demographic Trends and Gender Preferences · Family Dynamics and Relationships · Gender, Labor, and Family Dynamics
Understanding Family Change and Variation
Uncivil Agreement
Polarization and public health
Uncertainty and Narratives of the Future
The Emergence of Covid-19 in the US
Partisanship, health behavior, and policy attitudes in the early stages of the Covid-19 pandemic
Fertility attitudes of highly educated youth
The impact of narratives of the future on fertility intentions in Norway
The US Covid-19 baby bust and rebound
Narratives of the Future Affect Fertility
Do Pregnancy Intentions Matter? A Research Note Revisiting Relationships Among Pregnancy, Birth, and Maternal Outcomes
Fertility and Media Narratives of the Economy
Voter Migration and the Geographic Sorting of the American Electorate
The Home as a Political Fortress
Political Homophily in Social Relationships
Reversing the Causal Arrow
The Dating Preferences of Liberals and Conservatives
Party Polarization in American Politics
The Effects of the Great Recession on Family Structure and Fertility
Seeking politically compatible neighbors? The role of neighborhood partisan composition in residential sorting
A Polarized Environment
Fertility in a Pandemic
Partisan differences in physical distancing are linked to health outcomes during the Covid-19 pandemic
The politics of mask-wearing
Effects of the Covid-19 Recession on the US Labor Market
Women's employment and fertility in a global perspective (1960-2015)
Youth's political identity and fertility desires
Fertility Preferences and Cognition
The Great Recession, Fertility, and Uncertainty
Perceived Economic Uncertainty and Fertility
Spreading Uncertainty, Shrinking Birth Rates
Social context of first birth timing in a rapidly changing rural setting
| Citation velocity | historical |
|---|---|
| Highly cited | No |