Are Forced Migrant Trajectories Path-Dependent? A Markov Analysis
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 11385698 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Liam Haller (0000-0001-8033-6599, Department of Migration, German Center for Migration and Integration Research (DeZIM), Berlin, Germany, corresponding author) |
| Year | 2025 |
| Publication date | 2025-02-24 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | International Migration Review (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0197-9183 • E-ISSN: 1747-7379 |
| Publisher | SAGE Publications (PUBLISHER • US) |
| DOI | 10.1177/01979183251319015 |
| OpenAlex | W4407905782 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 1 |
| References cited | 19 |
This study evaluates whether the trajectories of forced migrants, specifically Syrian refugees moving towards Germany, exhibit path dependency—meaning that their migration decisions are influenced by past events and their previous migration experiences. Using data from the IAB-BAMF-SOEP survey of refugees, this article investigates whether these migration trajectories adhere to a Markov process, where the likelihood of future migrations depends solely on the current state. By employing global and local Markov score tests, the article systematically tests the Markov assumption across different migration routes, focusing on Turkey, Lebanon, and Egypt as transit countries. The findings indicate that shorter, reactive migrations from Syria to Lebanon and Turkey exhibit path dependency, meaning their likelihood is influenced by recent events. Conversely, longer, logistically complex migrations, such as from Syria to Egypt and from transit countries to Germany, adhere to the Markov property, suggesting path independence. This distinction highlights the impact of route difficulty and destination accessibility on migration behaviors. The implications of the findings are also significant for the use of the Markov property in computational models of migration. Researchers should exercise caution when applying the Markov assumption indiscriminately across different migration contexts, as its validity can vary based on external factors such as policy changes and route accessibility
Demographic economics · Econometrics · Economics · Markov chain · Mathematical economics · Path (computing · Path analysis (statistics · Path dependent · Sociology · Statistics · Climate Change, Adaptation, Migration · Computer Science · Mathematics · Migration and Labor Dynamics · Migration, Refugees, and Integration
‘Everyone is a Possibility’
Subjective and intangible factors in migration decision-making
Unequal access to protection? Selection patterns over arrival cohorts of Syrians seeking refuge in Lebanon, Turkey, and Germany
Assad or We Burn the Country
Searching for Directions
Death and Migration
The Many Forms of Multiple Migrations
The Dynamics of Repeat Migration
Risk perception and desire in decision-making
The gift of hospitality and the (un)welcoming of Syrian migrants in Turkey
| Unique citing works | 1 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 1 |
| Citation span | 2026 - 2026 (1) |
| Citation velocity | current |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 1 |