When the US far-right sneezes, the European far-right catches a cold. Quasi-experimental evidence of electoral contagion from Spain

Bibliographic Data

ID11435360
AuthorsStuart J Turnbull-Dugarte (0000-0002-9330-3945, University of Southampton, corresponding author), Jander Rama (0000-0002-3990-1696, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid)
Year2022
Volume76
Pages102443
Publication date2022-04-01
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueElectoral Studies (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0261-3794 • E-ISSN: 1873-6890
PublisherElsevier BV (PUBLISHER)
DOI10.1016/j.electstud.2022.102443
OpenAlexW4210738236
LanguageEN
Citations received9
References cited49

Does the electoral defeat of a far-right party abroad influence support for similar parties at home? In this paper we posit, and test, the theoretical argument that signals of viability and popularity akin to bandwagon and titanic effects operate beyond the confines of national boundaries to cause voters to update domestic preferences based on comparable party performance abroad. By exploiting the quasi-experimental setting provided by the coincidental timing of Donald Trump's 2020 electoral defeat with the Spanish sociological study's monthly barometer data collection, we provide robust causal evidence to show that Trump's electoral loss in the US had a negative contagious spillover effect on self-reported support for the Spanish far-right. Empirically we estimate intent-to-treat effects based on the as good as random exposure to the electoral results to isolate the impact of Trump's defeat on the voting intentions for Spain's new far-right party, VOX. Our results - which are robust to various modelling approaches including covariate adjustment, regional fixed effects, placebo issues, and nearest-neighbour matching - demonstrate that Trump's defeat to Joe Biden had a sizeable negative effect on expressed support for VOX. The contagion effect is substantive: equal to 3 to 6 percentage-points among the general population and 11 percentage-points among former right-wing voters. Our findings make an important contribution to the broader literature on electoral behaviour as they indicate that the electoral success of ideologically symmetrical parties abroad can play a role in understanding a party's domestic success by serving as an important information signal of these parties' electoral viability

Argument (complex analysis · Bandwagon effect · Demographic economics · Econometrics · Economics · Endogeneity · Microeconomics · Political economy · Political science · Politics · Popularity · Population · Referendum · Salience (neuroscience · Sociology · Spillover effect · Turnout · Voting · Demography · Electoral Systems and Political Participation · Law · Media Influence and Politics · Populism, Right-Wing Movements · Psychology

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