Probability models for family building

An analytical review

Dados Bibliográficos

ID11620412
AutoresMindel C Sheps (Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, 27514, autor correspondente), Jane Menken (0000-0002-0008-0325, Princeton University), Jane A Menken (Office of Population Research, Princeton University, 5 Ivy Lane, Princeton, New Jersey 08540), Annette P Radick (Columbia University School of Public Health and Administrative Medicine, and International Institute for the Study of Human Reproduction, 630 West 168 Street, New York, New York 10032)
Ano1969
Volume6
Fascículo2
Páginas161-183
Data de publicação1969-05-01
Peer ReviewedSim
Open AccessSim
TipoARTICLE
PeriódicoDemography (JOURNAL)
Identificadores do periódicoISSN: 0070-3370 • E-ISSN: 1533-7790
EditoraSpringer Science+Business Media (PUBLISHER • DE)
DOI10.2307/2060390
OpenAlexW2080527323
IdiomaEN
Citações recebidas2
Referências citadas27

Considerable literature now exists on stochastic models for the reproductive history of a cohort of couples. These models are of varying complexity and the relationships between separate treatments are not always clear. A classification system for such models is proposed, followed by a historical review of models for family building and for logically related processes. Models, differing only in treatment of time as discrete or continuous, are presented in detail for the simple case where the prob ability of conception is constant, and all conceptions lead to live births which are associated with a fixed nonsusceptible period. Analysis of different treatments is facilitated by introducing the notion of the time when a conception is recorded. Emphasis is placed on results for the probability of a recording at a specified time t, the probability of r recordings by time t, and the expected number of recordings in time t. Differences between the discrete and continuous time models are made explicit. It is shown that results for these models can be derived using renewal theory techniques, which are presented. More complex models based on renewal theory and allowing for several pregnancy outcomes or for variability in parameters are briefly described, followed by generalized models which allow parameters to vary with time. Applications of family building models are summarized

Constant (computer programming · Discrete time and continuous time · Econometrics · Epistemology · Expected value · Mathematical economics · Simple (philosophy · Statistics · Stochastic modelling · Assisted Reproductive Technology and Twin Pregnancy · Computer Science · demographic modeling and climate adaptation · Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management · Mathematics