Mortality levels and family fertility goals

In our last paper (Parlange et al., 1983), we dealt with problem of estimating group fertility rates from expected probability of a child surviving to a given age of a parent. We showed that by incorporating birth order in a comprehensive model, we were able to predict group fertility rates more accurately than a competing model found in demographic literature (Krishnamoorthy, 1979). Our principal criticism of Krishnamoorthy model was that it was improperly specified and therefore subject to specification bias. Improper specification may arise from inadequate theory or inadequate information (Langbein and Lichtman, 1978). Others have demonstrated that with adequate specification, problems of ecological correlation are reduced (Hanushek et al., 1974; Gove and Hughes, 1980). Krishnamoorthy and Kulkarni's comment shows a total confusion about relationship between our paper (Parlange et al., 1983), Krishnamoorthy's (1979), and ecological fallacy question. This confusion led them to reformulate, incorrectly, what they thought, wrongly, to be correct solution to our problem. Their fundamental misunderstanding is belief that the basic problem in Krishnamoorthy's (1979) model according to Parlange et al. (1983) is that it is formulated in terms of average family in population rather than individual

Birth rate · Confusion · Criticism · Econometrics · Economics · Epistemology · Fallacy · Fertility · Order (exchange · Political science · Population · Positive economics · Sociology · Demographic Trends and Gender Preferences · Demography · Global Maternal and Child Health · Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management · Law · Mathematics · Philosophy · Psychology

• Applied Mathematical Demography

  Open Access•Nathan Keyfitz•Applied Mathematical Demography•1985

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• Ecological Inference

  Laura Langbein, Laura Irwin Langbein et al.•Ecological Inference•1978

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• Mortality levels and family fertility goals

  Open Access•J-Y Parlange, J Y Parlange et al.•Demography•1983

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• Applied Mathematical Demography (Statistics for Biology and Health)

  Open Access•Nathan Keyfitz, Hal Caswell•Applied Mathematical Demography…•2005

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• Mortality Level, Desire for Surviving Son and Rate of Population Increase

  Krishnamoorthy, S Krishnamoorthy•Population Studies•1979

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• Reexamining the Ecological Fallacy

  Walter R Gove, Michael Hughes et al.•Social Forces•1980

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