The Effect of the Kyoto Protocol on Carbon Emissions

Since 1997, CO 2 emissions have continued to rise in many countries despite their emission caps under the Kyoto Protocol (Kyoto). Failure to meet promised targets, however, does not imply that Kyoto has been pointless. Whether Kyoto has made a difference relative to the counterfactual of “No Kyoto” is an empirical question that requires an instrumental variables strategy. We argue that countries’ ratification of the statutes governing the International Criminal Court is a valid instrument for ratification of Kyoto commitments. In our panel fixed effects estimations, the instrument easily passes weak identification and overidentification tests. It can be plausibly excluded from our second‐stage equations and does not cause CO 2 emissions. Our estimates suggest that Kyoto ratification has a quantitatively large (about 10 percent) and robust, though only moderately statistically significant, negative effect on CO 2 emissions. We also show that higher fuel prices and a different energy mix in Kyoto countries support this result

Counterfactual thinking · Econometrics · Economics · Greenhouse gas · International economics · International trade · Kyoto Protocol · Political science · Politics · Ratification · Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics · Climate Change Policy and Economics · Energy, Environment, Economic Growth · Law

• Does the Kyoto Protocol have a structural impact on the environmental Kuznets curve? An application of the varying coefficient model

  Open Access•Chi-Yang Chu, Chien-Ho Wang et al.•Empirical Economics•2025

  Incluir item

• Kyoto and Carbon Leakage

  Rahel Aichele, Gabriel Felbermayr•The Review of Economics and…•2015

  Incluir item

• Climate Change and Inequality

  Open Access•Leonid Grigoryev, Igor Makarov et al.•International Organisations…•2020

  Incluir item

• Sample Conditions Under Which Bias in IV Estimates can be Signed

  Open Access•Haeil Jung, Maureen A Pirog et al.•Journal of Policy Analysis and…•2017

  Incluir item

• Growing green? Sectoral-based prediction of GHG emission in Pakistan

  Open Access•Erum Rehman, Muhammad Ikram et al.•Environment Development and…•2021

  Incluir item

• Predictors of global carbon dioxide emissions

  Open Access•Mehmet Demiral, Emrah Eray Akça et al.•Environment Development and…•2021

  Incluir item

• Clumsy solutions and climate change

  Open Access•Marco Verweij•Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews…•2022

  Incluir item

• The Learning Process and Technological Change in Wind Power

  Open Access•Tian Tang, David Popp•Journal of Policy Analysis and…•2015

  Incluir item

• Has the Clean Air Interstate Rule Fulfilled Its Mission? An Assessment of Federal Rule-Making in Preventing Regional Spillover Pollution

  Open Access•Douglas Glasgow, Derek Glasgow et al.•Review of Policy Research•2017

  Incluir item

• Rethinking Climate Change Leadership

  Open Access•Douglas Glasgow, Shuang Zhao et al.•Review of Policy Research•2021

  Incluir item

• Do We Really Know That the WTO Increases Trade?

  Andrew K Rose•American Economic Review•2004

  Incluir item

• Heteroskedasticity-Robust Standard Errors for Fixed Effects Panel Data Regression

  Open Access•James H Stock, Mark W Watson•Econometrica•2008

  Incluir item

• The simple analytics of the environmental Kuznets curve

  Open Access•James Andreoni, Arik Levinson•Journal of Public Economics•2001

  Incluir item

• Stoking the fires? CO2 emissions and economic growth

  Open Access•Douglas Holtz-Eakin, Douglas Holtz‐Eakin et al.•Journal of Public Economics•1995

  Incluir item

• The Green Solow model

  Open Access•William A Brock, M Scott Taylor•Journal of Economic Growth•2010

  Incluir item

• Economic Growth and the Environment

  Gene M Grossman, Alan B Krueger•The Quarterly Journal of Economics•1995

  Incluir item

• Testing for Weak Instruments in Linear IV Regression

  Open Access•James H Stock, Motohiro Yogo•Identification and Inference for…•2005

  Incluir item

• How Much Should We Trust Differences-In-Differences Estimates?

  M Bertrand, Esther Duflo et al.•The Quarterly Journal of Economics•2004

  Incluir item

• Instrumental Variables Regression with Weak Instruments

  Douglas O Staiger, Douglas Staiger et al.•Econometrica•1997

  Incluir item

• Why Cooperate? Public Goods, Economic Power, and the Montreal Protocol

  Kurt J Beron, James C Murdoch et al.•The Review of Economics and…•2003

  Incluir item

• Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis

  Open Access•Soumyananda Dinda•Ecological Economics•2004

  Incluir item

• Reassessing the environmental Kuznets curve for CO2 emissions

  Open Access•Marzio Galeotti, Alessandro Lanza et al.•Ecological Economics•2006

  Incluir item

• Examining the Impact of Demographic Factors on Air Pollution

  Open Access•Matthew A Cole, E Neumayer et al.•Population and Environment•2004

  Incluir item

• Kyoto Protocol Participation

  Open Access•Richard York•Population Research and Policy…•2005

  Incluir item

• Assessing the Effectiveness of International Environmental Agreements

  Open Access•Evan J Ringquist, Tatiana Kostadinova•American Journal of Political…•2005

  Incluir item