The hierarchical diffusion of Aids and violent crime among U.S. metropolitan regions

Census data on migration within and between the 25 largest U.S. metropolitan areas-containing more than 113 million people-permit construction of a probability-of-contact matrix corresponding to a particular Markov process dominated by the nation's largest cities, a hierarchical structure. Regression models based on vectors associated with that process find the large-scale diffusion of AIDS in the U.S.A. depends strongly on national patterns of contact with the original AIDS outbreaks in New York City and San Francisco as modulated by the violent crime rate, a local index of social disintegration resulting from the marginalization of minority ethnic urban communities. Violent crime is itself undergoing a recognizably similar hierarchical diffusion from the largest U.S. cities into smaller metropolitan regions. Further analysis suggests that continuation of public policies of "benign neglect" and "planned shrinkage" directed against marginalized urban populations may trigger a strong stochastic resonance which can significantly degrade public health and public order for much of the three-quarters of the U.S. population living in or near cities, in effect reversing the mortality transition of the last century

Census · Criminology · Demographic economics · Economics · Ethnic group · Geography · Metropolitan area · Population · Public health · Socioeconomics · Sociology · COVID-19 epidemiological studies · Crime Patterns and Interventions · Demography · Medicine · Urban, Neighborhood, and Segregation Studies

• Migration, behaviour change and HIV/STD risks in China

  Xiao Yang, Valerian J Derlega et al.•AIDS Care•2007

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• A Qualitative Exploratory Study of Injection Drug Users' Participation in a Long-Term Epidemiological Study of HIV

  Open Access•Susan G Sherman, Susan Sherman et al.•AIDS and Behavior•1999

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• Drugscapes and the role of place and space in injection drug use-related HIV risk environments

  Open Access•Barbara Tempalski, Hilary McQuie•International Journal of Drug…•2009

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• Social geography of sexually transmitted diseases in China

  Open Access•Christopher J Smith•Asia Pacific Viewpoint•2005

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• Placing the dynamics of syringe exchange programs in the United States

  Open Access•Barbara Tempalski•Health & Place•2006

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• Plague and power relations

  R Wallace•Geografiska Annaler Series B…•2007

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• Future Directions in Residential Segregation and Health Research

  Dolores Acevedo-Garcia, Dolores Acevedo‐garcía et al.•American Journal of Public Health•2003

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• Scales of geography, time, and population

  Deborah Wallace, R Wallace•American Journal of Public Health•1998

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• HIV/Aids and Tourism in the Caribbean

  Mark B Padilla, Mark Padilla et al.•American Journal of Public Health•2010

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• Life and Death in Upper Manhattan and the Bronx

  Open Access•Deborah Wallace, R Wallace•Environment and Planning A…•2000

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• Emerging Infections and Nested Martingales

  Open Access•R Wallace, Deborah Wallace•Environment and Planning A…•1999

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• Deindustrialization, Inner-City Decay, and the Hierarchical Diffusion of Aids in the USA

  Open Access•R Wallace, Deborah Wallace et al.•Environment and Planning A…•1999

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• Distribuição dos casos de Aids em mulheres no Rio de Janeiro, de 1982 a 1997

  Open Access•Jeane Glaucia Tomazelli, Jeane Tomazelli et al.•Cadernos de Saude Publica•2003

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• Aids e pauperização

  Open Access•Francisco I Bastos, Célia Landmann Szwarcwald•Cadernos de Saude Publica•2000

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• The impact of Aids, immigration and housing overcrowding on tuberculosis deaths in São Paulo, Brazil, 1994-1998

  Open Access•J L F Antunes, Eliseu Alves Waldman•Social Science & Medicine•2001

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• Residential segregation, geographic proximity and type of services used

  Open Access•Gniesha Y Dinwiddie, Darrell J Gaskin et al.•Social Science & Medicine•2013

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• Aids, race and the limits of science

  Open Access•Wende Elizabeth Marshall•Social Science & Medicine•2005

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• Residential segregation and the epidemiology of infectious diseases

  Open Access•Dolores Acevedo-Garcia, Dolores Acevedo‐garcía•Social Science & Medicine•2000

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• Substance Abuse and Slow-Motion Disasters

  Open Access•P Draus, Paul J Draus•Sociological Quarterly•2009

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• Multivariate analysis

  Maurice M Tatsuoka•Multivariate analysis•1971

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• The sociology of health and illness

  Peter Conrad•The sociology of health and illness•1997

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• Cross‐Scale Morphology, Geometry, and Dynamics of Ecosystems

  Open Access•C S Holling•Ecological Monographs•1992

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• Excess Mortality in Harlem

  Colin McCord, Harold P Freeman•New England Journal of Medicine•1990

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• A synergism of plagues

  Open Access•Rodrick Wallace•Environmental Research•1988

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• Resilience and Stability of Ecological Systems

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• Spatial Structures and Scientific Paradoxes in the Aids Pandemic

  Peter Gould, R Wallace•Geografiska Annaler Series B…•1994

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• Spatial diffusion

  Open Access•Norman Bailey, Norman T J Bailey•Journal of Historical Geography•1982

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• U.S. Apartheid and the spread of Aids to the suburbs

  Open Access•R Wallace, Deborah Wallace•Social Science & Medicine•1995

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• Applied Mathematical Ecology

  Chris Bain•Journal of Epidemiology and…•1990

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• Will Aids be contained within U.S. minority urban populations

  Open Access•R Wallace, Mindy Thomson Fullilove et al.•Social Science & Medicine•1994

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• Structural Fire as an Urban Parasite

  Open Access•D N Wallace, Deborah Wallace et al.•Environment and Planning A…•1984

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• The Destruction of US Minority Urban Communities and the Resurgence of Tuberculosis

  Open Access•R Wallace, Deborah Wallace•Environment and Planning A…•1997

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• Spatial Diffusion

  Open Access•Jonathan D Mayer, A D Cliff et al.•Geographical Review•1983

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• Roots of increased health care inequality in New York

  Open Access•Deborah Wallace•Social Science & Medicine•1990

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• Urban desertification, public health and public order

  Open Access•R Wallace•Social Science & Medicine•1990

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• The slow plague

  Open Access•K David Patterson•Social Science & Medicine•1994

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• An interpretation of the decline of mortality in England and Wales during the twentieth century

  Thomas Mckeown, R G Record et al.•Population Studies•1975

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• The Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Aids and TB in the New York Metropolitan Region from a Sociogeographic Perspective

  Open Access•R Wallace, Deborah Wallace et al.•Environment and Planning A…•1995

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• Resilience and Persistence of the Synergism of Plagues

  Open Access•R Wallace, Deborah Wallace•Environment and Planning A…•1997

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• Inner-City Disease and the Public Health of the Suburbs

  Open Access•R Wallace, Deborah Wallace•Environment and Planning A…•1993

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• Marginalization, Information, and Infection

  Open Access•R Wallace, Alan J Flisher et al.•Environment and Planning A…•1997

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