Agricultural value chains in a fragile state

The case of rice in Myanmar

Bibliographic Data

ID11914767
AuthorsBart Minten (0000-0002-2183-1845, Lao-Oxford-Mahosot Hospital-Wellcome Trust Research Unit, corresponding author), Joseph Goeb (0000-0003-2895-2006, Michigan State University), Khin Zin Win (Myanmar Oxford Clinical Research Unit), Phoo Pye Zone (Myanmar Oxford Clinical Research Unit)
Year2023
Volume167
Pages106244-106244
Publication date2023-03-23
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueWorld Development (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0305-750X • E-ISSN: 1873-5991
PublisherElsevier BV (PUBLISHER)
DOI10.1016/j.worlddev.2023.106244
OpenAlexW4360608201
LanguageEN
Citations received3
References cited20

The large majority of extreme poor in the world lives in fragile states. Yet, despite the enormous importance of these areas for global poverty and food insecurity, there is relatively little research examining how agricultural value chains, crucial for assuring food security, respond and adapt to such contexts. This paper analyzes Myanmar’s rice value chain – its most important staple and biggest value chain – during the economic collapse and political instability caused by a military coup in early 2021. It relies on unique data collected with a large sample of rice retailers and millers before and after the coup. Despite many challenges in the rice value chain after the coup – most importantly linked to banking and transport – rice processing and trade continued, assuring availability of rice in most retail markets and illustrating the resilience of the value chain to such major shock. While processing margins were mostly stable, an increased distribution margin (between rice millers and retailers) led to 11 percent higher average retail prices after the coup, implying welfare losses of almost USD 0.5 billion for the country. Using a market-pair regression method, we further find that localized violence near sellers and buyers, distances traveled, and distance of vendors from borders are associated with significantly increased rice price dispersion between rice retailers and mills. Despite the amalgam of problems to address in such settings, prioritizing the easing of transport restrictions and facilitating cheap and safe spatial arbitrage of food products would likely help prevent further food price inflation, assure higher farm prices, and therefore improve welfare

Agricultural economics · Agriculture · Arbitrage · Business · Economic growth · Economics · Food prices · Food security · Geography · Gross margin · Poverty · Resilience (materials science · Shock (circulatory · Staple food · Value (mathematics · Agricultural risk and resilience · Agriculture, Land Use, Rural Development · Asian Geopolitics and Ethnography

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