Les changements récents dans la structure industrielle et leur impact sur le potentiel d'exportation des pays du Caem dans le commerce Est-Ouest

Recent Changes in Industrial Structure and Their Impact on the Export Potential of CMEA Countries in East-West Trade. The heavy import of foreign technology and capital during the first half of the 1970's was expected to contribute to the modernization and restructuring of the economies of the CMEA countries which would, in turn, increase overall productivity and expand their export potential. However, all those improvements were undertaken "from above" by the central planners in accordance with their understanding of the needs and possibilities, with distorded price and cost structures, without a significant increase in decentralization and improved flexibility of the production and foreign trade enterprises. Only in Hungary structural changes were, to a certain extent, allowed to result from microeconomic decisions. Some information on the ability of the CMEA countries to expand their relative position in the world markets is provided by the study of their relative share of those markets for major commodity classes (SITC revised). For all commodity classes taken together there was a slight increase in the CMEA countries' share of the market of developed countries and a considerable decline in their share of the developing countries market. These changes indicated some shift of potential exports from the developing to the developed countries. A somewhat more disaggregated analysis shows that the Soviet and East European countries were unable to maintain their position as suppliers of cereals, iron and steel and other metal products in both markets and that their expansion of the share in the developed countries market for crude fertilizers and minerals and non-ferrous metals was made at the expense of considerable declines in their share of the market of developing countries. In all these cases it may perhaps be assumed that difficulties of increasing supply were present. However, the pattern of growth in the CMEA countries is not sensitive to the growth of demand in the market economies. Keeping in mind the high degree of aggregation and difficulties involved in comparing industrial structure with international trade data, there seems to be a certain weakness of the export potential of the CMEA countries in East-West trade resulting from their structural policies which do not seem to be geared to the requirements of the world trade. In the absence of a modification of these policies the CMEA countries may find it difficult to expand their shares in the world markets, to repay the debts and to continue technology transfer

Business · Commodity · Comparative advantage · Economic growth · Economics · Economy · International economics · International trade · Market economy · Productivity · Restructuring · Revealed comparative advantage · Global Trade and Competitiveness

• Canadian Publications on the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe for 1979

  Nicholas G Zekulin•Canadian Slavonic Papers•1980

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