Intuitive prediction
Ecological validity versus representativeness
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 12165579 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Sorel Cahan (Hebrew University of Jerusalem, corresponding author), Tchia Snapiri (Hebrew University of Jerusalem) |
| Year | 2008 |
| Volume | 21 |
| Issue | 3 |
| Pages | 297-316 |
| Publication date | 2008-03-26 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Journal of Behavioral Decision Making (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0894-3257 • E-ISSN: 1099-0771 |
| Publisher | Wiley (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1002/bdm.589 |
| OpenAlex | W2001258895 |
| Language | EN |
| References cited | 56 |
Insufficiently regressive intuitive predictions have been attributed to mistaken reliance on the representativeness heuristic. In contrast, we suggest that intuitive predictions stem from a conceptualization of ‘goodness of prediction’ that differs from the accepted statistical definition in terms of error minimization, namely, ecological validity—that is, representation of the substantive characteristics of the predicted variable Y and its distribution as well as of the relationship between Y and the predictor X —rather than minimization of prediction errors. Simultaneous satisfaction of the above representation requirements is achieved by multivalued prediction: The prediction of different Y ′ values for the same X value, resulting in conditional distributions Y ′ |X for at least some X values. Empirical results supporting this hypothesis are presented and discussed. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd
Conceptualization · Contrast (vision · Econometrics · Heuristic · Mean squared prediction error · Representation (politics · Representativeness heuristic · Statistics · Variable (mathematics · Computer Science · Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics · Economic and Environmental Valuation · Forecasting Techniques and Applications · Mathematics · Psychology · Artificial Intelligence
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| Citation velocity | historical |
|---|---|
| Highly cited | No |