Discounting by Probabilistic Waiting
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 12166184 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Ariana Vanderveldt (Department of Psychological and Brain Sciences Washington University in St. Louis St. Louis MO USA, corresponding author), Leonard Green (0000-0003-1555-5757, Department of Psychological and Brain Sciences Washington University in St. Louis St. Louis MO USA), Howard Rachlin (0000-0002-6552-5604, Department of Psychology Stony Brook University Stony Brook NY USA) |
| Year | 2015 |
| Volume | 30 |
| Issue | 1 |
| Pages | 39-53 |
| Publication date | 2015-10-13 |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Journal of Behavioral Decision Making (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0894-3257 • E-ISSN: 1099-0771 |
| Publisher | Wiley (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1002/bdm.1917 |
| OpenAlex | W1912544574 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 3 |
| References cited | 33 |
In everyday life, many probabilistic situations may be characterized as probabilistic waiting. A gambler, for example, bets repeatedly at the racetrack, the casino, or the card table. The gambler may not win on the first try, but if a gamble is repeated enough times, a win is almost certain to occur eventually. If repeated gambles are structured as strings of losses ending in a win (probabilistic waiting) and the amount won is discounted by the delay caused by the series of losses, then strings with many losses will be discounted more than those with fewer losses, thereby causing subjective value of the series of gambles as a whole to increase. The current study used the opposite effect that amount has on the degree of delay and probability discounting as a marker to determine whether people evaluate situations involving probabilistic waiting as they evaluate situations involving delayed outcomes or as situations involving probabilistic outcomes. We find that the more likely a probabilistic waiting situation is to end in reward (e.g., a gamble is repeated indefinitely until reward is obtained), the more that situation conforms to delay discounting; the less likely a probabilistic waiting situation is to end in reward (e.g., a fixed, small number of gambles), the more that situation conforms to probability discounting. We argue that the former situation is applicable to pathological gambling, and that people with steep delay discount functions would therefore be more likely to have gambling problems. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd
Delay discounting · Discounting · Econometrics · Economics · Expected utility hypothesis · Expected value · Mathematical economics · Probabilistic logic · Statistics · Subjective expected utility · Value (mathematics · Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics · Gambling Behavior and Treatments · Mathematics · Psychology · Sports Analytics and Performance
| Citations per year | 0.33 |
|---|---|
| Citation span | 2017 - 2026 (10) |
| Highly cited | No |