Polling Accuracy in a Multiparty Election
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 12233257 |
|---|---|
| Authors | M J Wright, Malcolm Wright (0000-0003-3334-6414, Statistics New Zealand, corresponding author), David Farrar (Statistics New Zealand), D P Farrar, D F Russell (Massey University) |
| Year | 2013 |
| Volume | 26 |
| Issue | 1 |
| Pages | 113-124 |
| Publication date | 2013-05-09 |
| Open Access | No |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | International Journal of Public Opinion Research (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0954-2892 • E-ISSN: 1471-6909 |
| Publisher | Oxford University Press (OUP) (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.1093/ijpor/edt009 |
| OpenAlex | W2332720234 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 9 |
| References cited | 12 |
How accurate are political opinion polls in multiparty elections? Many countries have proportional representation systems with low vote thresholds for parliamentary representation. Germany has such a system, as do Israel, Poland, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, the Republic of Macedonia, Romania, and South Africa. Minor parties are a viable voting choice in these countries, resulting in multiparty elections. Despite this, there is little work on polling accuracy for multiparty elections. Political polling usually has three purposes: to forecast the outcome of an election; to understand voter behavior; and to inform campaign strategy (Hillygus, 2011). In multiparty elections, these imperatives remain, but with complications. The forecasting problem includes whether small parties will gain representation at all. Party supporters may engage in strategic voting to strengthen coalition partners (Meffert & Gschwend, 2011). If a party lies below the proportional representation threshold, supporters may change their vote to avoid wasting their ballot (Holtz-Bacha, 2012). Campaign strategy may take account of postelection coalitions; strategic voting may be encouraged to help a coalition partner above the threshold. Alternatively, campaigning against a minor party may drive it below the threshold, forcing it out of parliament, allowing successful parties to hold more seats
Ballot · Democracy · Economics · Electoral system · General election · Microeconomics · Outcome (game theory · Parliament · Political economy · Political science · Politics · Polling · Proportional representation · Representation (politics · Turnout · Voting · Computer Science · Electoral Systems and Political Participation · Game Theory and Voting Systems · Opinion Dynamics and Social Influence · Law · Public Administration
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The Evolution of Election Polling in the United States
Election Predictions
The Accuracy of the National Preelection Polls in the 2004 Presidential Election
Polls, coalition signals and strategic voting
| Citations per year | 0.82 |
|---|---|
| Citation span | 2015 - 2023 (9) |
| Highly cited | No |