To Prevent a Revolution

John F. Kennedy came to power in 1961 with Iran on the verge of revolution against the Shah's unpopular policies. To stabilise the situation, his Administration attempted to promote democracy through a development plan based on the precepts of modernisation theory. Backed by academic theorists who argued that promoting democracy was the best way to secure victory in the Cold War, Kennedy developed an ambitious plan to transform Iran. This policy was seen as essential to replace the inevitable uncontrollable revolution and subsequent loss of Iran, with one controlled and directed by Washington. This analysis provides the first comprehensive examination of this plan and its foundations that has heretofore been overlooked. Kennedy's policy towards Iran illuminates the role that external powers can have in manufacturing, supporting, and encouraging a country's transition to democracy. Its failure, and the absence of any replacement plan to ensure political reform, made inevitable the uncontrollable revolution which eventually came in 1978. Notes 1. OCB Working Group on Current Political Conditions in Iran, 22 August 1956, WHO (Dwight D. Eisenhower Library, Abilene, KS) NSC Staff Papers, 1948–61, OCB Central File Series, Box 44. 2. See “Discussion from the 279th Meeting of the NSC,” 18 September 1958, Papers as President 1953, 1961, Eisenhower Papers NSC Series Box 10; NSC 5703/1, OCB Report, 8 October 1958, Ibid., WHO, OSANSA Records, 1952–61, NSC Series, Policy Papers Subseries Box 20. 3. Mark J. Gasiorowski, US Foreign Policy and the Shah: Building a Client State in Iran (Ithaca, NY, 1991), p. 96. 4. Memorandum, “Discussion at the 449th Meeting of the NSC,” 30 June 1960. Foreign Relations of the United States (hereafter FRUS) (Washington, DC, on-going), 1958–1960, Volume 12, p. 678. 5. CIA Position Paper, in Belk memorandum to Bundy (National Security Advisor), 24 February 1961, NSF (John F. Kennedy Library, Boston, MA) Box 115a. 6. David Ekbladh, The Great American Mission: Modernization and the Construction of an American World Order (Princeton, NJ, 2010); Tony Smith, America's Mission: the United States and the Worldwide Struggle for Democracy in the Twentieth Century (Princeton, NJ, 1994); Nick Cullather, The Hungry World: America's Cold War Battle against Poverty in Asia (Cambridge, 2010); Michael E. Latham Right Kind of Revolution: Modernization and US Foreign Policy from the Cold War to the Present (Ithaca, NY, 2010). 7. Nils Gilman, The Great American Mission: Modernization Theory in Cold War America (Baltimore, MD, 2003) p. 3. 8. Ibid., p. 5. 9. See David Milne, America's Rasputin: Walt Rostow and the Vietnam War (New York, 2008), pp. 53–54. 10. Kennedy to Eugene Rostow, 16 October 1956, Pre-Presidential Papers, Kennedy Papers Box 550. 11. Walt W. Rostow and Max F. Millikan, A Proposal: Key to an Effective Foreign Policy (New York, 1957), p. 1. 12. Ibid., pp. 26, 137. 13. Gilman, Mandarins of the Future, 191; Milne, America's Rasputin, p. 66. 14. Walt W. Rostow, Diffusion of Power; An Essay in Recent History (New York, 1972), p. 125; Milne, America's Rasputin. 15. For more on Kennedy and India, see Robert J. McMahon The Cold War on the Periphery: The United States, India and Pakistan (New York, 1996), pp. 272–304. 16. Milne, America's Rasputin 78–79; Robert Packenham, Liberal America and the Third World: Political Development Ideas in Foreign Aid and Social Science (Princeton, NJ, 1973), p. 59. 17. Milne, America's Rasputin p. 79. 18. John F. Kennedy, Special Message to the Congress on Foreign Aid (22 March 1961). 19. Michael E. Latham, Modernization as Ideology: American Social Science and “Nation Building” in the Kennedy Era (Chapel Hill, NC, 2000), pp. 7–8. 20. George W. Ball, The Past Has Another Pattern (New York, 1982), p. 183. 21. Latham, Modernization as Ideology, p. 13. 22. Joint Chiefs of Staff Joint Intelligence Committee Memorandum for the Joint Strategic Plans Committee and the Joint Logistic Plans Committee, 13 April 1955, in Yonah Alexander and Allan S. Nanes, eds., The United States and Iran: A Documentary History (Frederick, MD, 1980), pp. 273–274. 23. Ervand Abrahamian The Coup: 1953 and the Roots of Modern US–Iranian relations (New York, 2013). 24. National Intelligence Estimate (NIE 34-61), 28 February 1961, FRUS, 1961–1963, Volume 17, p. 37; N.S. Barnes, Policy Planning Council Report, 11 February 1960, RG 59 [National Archives, College Park, MD] Box 141. 25. Arthur M. Schlesinger, A Thousand Days: John F. Kennedy in the White House (Boston, MA, 2003), p. 303. 26. “Lippmann Believes Khrushchev Feels Red Triumph is Inevitable,” Washington Post (18 April 1961). 27. Robert S. McNamara, In Retrospect: The Tragedy and Lessons of Vietnam (New York, 1995), p. 30; Milne, America's Rasputin, p. 75. 28. James Bill, The Eagle and the Lion: The Tragedy of American–Iranian Relations (New Haven, CT, 1988), p. 136. 29. Komer memorandum to Bundy, 11 August 1961, Kennedy Papers, NSF Box 116. 30. Richard M. Bissell Jr., “Position Paper on Iran,” in Belk memorandum to Bundy, 24 February 1961, Ibid. NSF Box 115a. 31. Kenneth R. Hansen “Some Notes on the Situation in Iran,” 20 March 1961, attached to JB memorandum to Bundy, 1 April. 1961, Ibid. NSF Box 115a; William O. Baxter memorandum to John O. Bell (deputy coordinator for Mutual Security), 27 March 1961, RG 59 Box 2089, 788.00/4-1361. 32. Harold Saunders interview recorded by William Burr, 12, 27 February, 8 April, 1 May 1987, Oral History of the Iran Collection of the Foundation of Iranian Studies Collection of the Foundation of Iranian Studies: http://www.fis-iran.org/en/oralhistory/Saunders-Harold>. 33. Ibid. 34. John W. Bowling, “The Current Political Situation in Iran,” attached Morgan memorandum to Bundy, 27 March 1961, Kennedy Papers NSF, Box 115. 35. General Timur Bakhtiar and Rusk, memorandum of conversation, 21 February 1961, FRUS 1961–1963, p. 33. 36. Incoming Message to White House, “Teheran Situation Critical,” 5 May, 1961. Kennedy Papers NSF, Box 115. 37. Bill, Eagle and the Lion, 142; Richard W. Cottam, Nationalism in Iran (Pittsburgh, PA, 1964), p. 302; Goode, “Reforming Iran,” 19; April R. Summitt, “For a White Revolution: John F. Kennedy and the Shah of Iran,” Middle East Journal, 58(2004), p. 565; Victor Nemchenok, “In Search of Stability Amid Chaos: US policy toward Iran, 1961–63,” Cold War History, 10(2010), p. 350; Latham Right Kind of Revolution, p. 147; Kristen Blake The US–Soviet Confrontation in Iran, 1945–1962: A Case Study in the Annals of the Cold War (Lanham, MD, 2009), p. 149. 38. Summitt, “White Revolution”. 39. Ambassador telegram to Secretary of State, 5 May 1953, RG 59 Box 4110, 788.00/5-553. 40. Bowling despatch to State Department, 28 February 1959, RG 59 Box 3812, 788.00/2-2859. 41. Ibid. 42. Abbas Milani The Shah (New York, 2011), p. 251. Milani explains that Sharif-Emami claimed that large amounts of money were suddenly deposited in a bank account set aside to support the strikers and that a “foreign officer” was seen riding a motorcycle dictating the actions and movement of the demonstrators. This was is most likely untrue as opposition to the Shah was both real and widespread. 43. For more on the Shah's fear of external rather than internal threats, see NSC 5703/1 Operations Coordinating Board Report, 8 Oct. 1958, Eisenhower Papers WHO, OSANA Records, 1952–61, National Security Council Policy Papers, Subseries Box 20; Dr. Khodad Farmanfarmaian interview, recorded by Habib Ladjevardi, 10 November 1982, Iranian Oral History Collection, Harvard University: http://www.fas.harvard.edu/~iohp/farmanfarmaian.html. 44. Iraj Amini, Bar Bal-e Bohran: zendegi-ye siyasi-ye Ali Amini (Tehran, 2009), p. 149; Abbas Milani, Eminent Persians: The Men and Women Who Made Modern Iran, 1941–1979 (Syracuse, NY, 2008), pp. 64–65. 45. Milani Eminent Persians p. 68. 46. Amini, Bar Bal-e Bohran, p. 260. 47. Interview of William G. Miller recorded by Shahla Haeri, 7–25 March 1985, Iranian Oral History Collection, Harvard University: http://www.fas.harvard.edu/~iohp/miller.html. See also Ervand Abrahamian, Iran Between Two Revolutions (Princeton, NJ, 1982), p. 423; Kenneth M. Pollack, The Persian Puzzle: the Conflict Between Iran and America (New York, 2004), p. 82; Amin Saikal, The Rise and Fall of the Shah (Princeton, NJ, 1980), p. 76. 48. The reminiscences of Colonel Gratian Yatsevitch in an interview with William Burr, 5 November, 1988, 12 January 1989, pp. 1–64, Oral History of Iran Collection of the Foundation of Iranian Studies; Amini, Bar Bal-e Bohran, p. 283; Eric J. Hooglund, Land and Revolution in Iran, 1960–1980 (Austin, TX, 1982), pp. 47–48. 49. See Amini, Bar Bal-e Bohran, pp. 101, 317; reminiscences of Colonel Gratian Yatsevitch; Abbas Amirie and Hamilton A. Twitchell, Iran in the 1980s (Tehran, 1978), p. 382. 50. Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, Answer to History (New York, 1980), pp. 22–23, 146; “Back of the Boom in Iran: the Shah's own Story,” US World & News Report (27 January 1969). The Shah's belief that the Americans imposed Amini on him by is also mentioned in Assadollah Alam, The Diaries of Assadollah Alam, quoted in Fakhreddin Azimi, The Quest for Democracy in Iran: A Century of Struggle Against Authoritarian Rule (Cambridge, MA, 2008), p. 167; and Stuart Rockwell interview recorded by Habib Ladjevardi, 20 May 1987, Iranian Oral History Collection, Harvard University: http://www.fas.harvard.edu/~iohp/rockwell.html. It should also be noted that Amini disputes that he was put in place by the Americans and argues the Shah's statement had put Iran to shame. See Ali Amini, interview recorded by Habib Ladjevardi, 6 December 1981, Iran Oral History Collection, Harvard University. 51. “Record of Action No. 2427—Taken at the 484th Meeting of the National Security Council,” 19 May 1961, FRUS, 1961–1963, Volume 17, p. 120. 52. Keesing's Contemporary Archive: A Record of World Events 1961 (1961), 18117; H.E. Chehabi Iranian Politics and Religious Modernism: the Liberation Movement of Iran Under the Shah and Khomeini (Ithaca, NY, 1990), pp. 151–53. 53. “A Review of Problems in Iran and Recommendations for the National Security Council, A Report of the Task Force on Iran,” 15 May 1961, Komer memorandum “Status Report on Iran Task Force” to Bundy, 28 October 1961, both Kennedy Papers NSF Box 115a; Armin Meyer in Amirie and Twitchell, Iran in the 1980s, p. 382. 54. Bundy, “Preliminary Comments on Iran Task Force Report,” 15 May 1961, Kennedy Papers NSF Box 115a. 55. US Embassy telegram to Secretary of State, 15 June 1961, Ibid.; Wailes telegram to Rusk (secretary of State), 24 May 1961, RG 59 Box 2089, 788.00/5-2961. 56. See Rostow memorandum to McGhee, 28 March 1961, RG 59 Box 2089; Notes on Discussion of Iran Between Professor Cuyler Young and Messrs. Rostow and Johnson, 3 April 1961, Kennedy Papers NSF Box 115a; McGhee memorandum to Rostow, 3 April 1961, RG 59 Box 2089, 788.00/4-561. 57. Rockwell, Iranian Oral History Project. 58. Bill, Eagle and the Lion, p. 143. 59. “A Report of the Task Force on Iran,” 15 May 1961, Kennedy Papers NSF Box 115a. 60. “Follow-up Measures to Support the Amini Regime—Task Force on Iran,” 11 August 1961, Kennedy Papers NSF Box 116. 61. “Time, Gentlemen, Please,” Time (9 June 1961), 25; “Iran's Shrewd Premier,” New York Times (30 May 1962), p. 2. 62. Keesing's 1961, 18117. 63. “Time, Gentlemen, Please,” Time (9 June 1961), p. 25. 64. See “Reform with Tears,” Time (16 June 1961), p. 25; “Caviar Fraud Alleged,” New York Times (4 June 1961), p. 21. 65. Milani, Shah, p. 260. 66. “Iranian Says He Cut Corruption by 60%,” New York Times (6 May 1962), p. 32. 67. B.M. Harris, “Literacy Corps: Iran's Gamble to Conquer Illiteracy,” International Review of Education, 9/4(1963), p. 431. 68. Desmond Harney interview recorded by Habib Ladjevardi, 15 October 1985, Iranian Oral History Collection, Harvard University: http://ted.lib.harvard.edu/ted/deliver/~iohp/Harney,+Desmond.01. 69. “Last Call in Iran,” New York Times (2 June 1961), p. 30. 70. “Diffident Dr. Amini,” Economist (14 July 1962), 49; “Shah Orders Amini to Press Reform,” New York Times (15 November 1961), p. 4. 71. Rostow, Stages of Economic Growth, p. 22. 72. Cullather, Hungry World, p. 4. 73. Ibid., p. 161. 74. Battle memorandum to Bundy, 11 August 1961, Kennedy Papers NSF Box 116. 75. Victor Nemchenok, “That so Fair a Thing Should be So Frail: the Ford Foundation and the Failure of Rural Development in Iran, 1953–1964,” Middle East Journal, 63/2(2009), p. 3. 76. See William Gaud interview, recorded by Joseph E. O'Connor, 21 February, 1966, 40. Oral History Program (John F. Kennedy Library, Boston, MA). Curiously, Afsaneh Najmabadi, in her thorough examination of land reform in Iran, uses this interview with Gaud, the assistant administrator of AID for the Near East and South Asia, to prove that the United States had little say in Amini's programme of land reform during this time. The confusion lies in Gaud's expression that the Shah's land reform programme came “all of a sudden, more or less out of the blue as far as we were concerned.” Najmabadi reads this to refer to the January 1962 land reform legislation of Amini's government. In actuality, Gaud explicitly states that he was referring to the Shah's White Revolution announced in January 1963. Afsaneh Najmabadi, Land Reform and Social Change in Iran (Salt Lake City, UT, 1987), p. 78. 77. “Time, Gentlemen, Please,” Time (9 June 1961), p. 25. 78. “Iran Gets Action in Land Reform,” New York Times (29 July 1961), p. 13. 79. Najmabadi, Land Reform, 80; George B. Baldwin, Planning and Development in Iran (Baltimore, MD, 1967), p. 93. 80. “Sec. Freeman in Iran,” Boston Globe (13 October 1961), 11; “Freeman Visits Iran,” Washington Post (13 October 1961), B5. 81. Smith, America's Mission, p. 218. 82. A Review of Problems in Iran and Recommendations for the National Security Council, A Report of the Task Force on Iran, 15 May, 1961, Kennedy Papers NSF Box 115a. 83. “Status of Specific Recommendation as Approved by the President—the Situation in Iran, for meeting of the Iran Task Force,” 2 August 1961, Ibid. NSF Komer Box 426; Robert Komer “Our Policy in Iran,” 20 October, 1962, Ibid. NSF Box 119. 84. “Iran Gets Action in Land Reform,” New York Times (29 July 1961), p. 13. 85. Richard Bissell, “Policy Paper on Iran,” attached to Belk memorandum to Bundy, 24 February 1961, Kennedy Papers NSF Box, 115a. 86. “Gift for Dr. Amini,” Economist (2 December 1961), p. 57. For more on basic democracy, see K.B. Sayeed “Pakistan's Basic Democracy,” Middle East Journal, 15/3(1961), pp. 249–63. 87. Nemchenok, “Search of Stability,” pp. 10, 16, 20. 88. Komer memorandum to Kennedy, 4 August 1961, “Embassy Concerns on NEA Study of Possible US Actions re: The Long Term Political Situation in Iran,” 27 August 1961, Embassy air gram to Rusk, 18 October 1961, all Kennedy Papers NSF Box 116. 89. “Foreign Affairs—A Revolution from the Top,” New York Times (24 July 1961), p. 22. 90. Task Force Report—Iran, 9 October 1961, Kennedy Papers NSF Box 426. 91. Embassy telegram to Rusk, 18 October 1961, Rusk telegram to Ambassador, 31 October 1961, Ambassador memorandum to Rusk, 6 November 1961, all Ibid. NSF Box 116. 92. “The Shah's Proclamation on Reform,” reprinted in Middle East Journal, 16/1(1962), p. 86. 93. Battle memorandum to Bundy, “Report by Chairman, Iran Task Force,” 18 January 1962. Kennedy Papers NSF Box 116. 94. Embassy telegram to State Department, 10 May 1961, RG 59 Central Files 788.00/5-961. 95. Chehabi, Iranian Politics, 164; Iraj Amini, Bar Bal-e Bohran, p. 401. 96. Komer memorandum to Kaysen, 19 January 1962, Kennedy Papers NSF Box 116. 97. Ibid. 98. Ibid.; Komer memorandum to Kennedy, 3 October 1961, Ibid., NSF Box 426; Saunders memorandum to Rostow, 24 November 1961, Ibid. NSF Box 116. 99. See Jeffrey F. Taffet Foreign Aid as Foreign Policy: the Alliance for Progress in Latin America (New York, 2007), pp. 45–48; Stephen G. Rabe John F. Kennedy: World Leader (Washington, DC, 2010), pp. 82–97; Jerome I. Levinson and Juan de Onis, The Alliance That Lost its Way: a Critical Report on the Alliance for Progress (Chicago, IL, 1970). 100. By 1971, only 3,967 out of an estimated 60,000 villages had been divided under the provisions of the land reform act. Najmabadi, Land Reform and Social Change p. 94. 101. “Diffident Dr. Amini,” Economist (14 July 1962), p. 49. 102. CIA Information Report, 14 May, 1962, Department of State telegram to Embassy, 16 June 1962, both Kennedy Papers NSF Box 116. 103. Townsend Hoopes, The Limits of Intervention: An Inside Account of How the Johnson Policy of Escalation in Vietnam was Reversed (New York, 1969), p. 21. 104. Milne, America's Rasputin, pp. 9–10. 105. See Komer memorandum to Kennedy, 4 August 1961, Task Force Report, Follow-Up Measures to Support the Amini Regime, 10 August 1961, both Kennedy Papers NSF Box 116; “Iran Aid Planned by US and Bonn,” New York Times (4 August 1961), p. 3; “Dr. Amini's Defeat,” Economist (21 July 1962), pp. 20–21. 106. Department of State memorandum to Embassy, 16 June 1962, Department of State memorandum to Embassy, 20 June 1962, Kennedy Papers NSF Box 116. 107. Summitt, “White Revolution,” p. 568; Nemchenok, “Search of Stability,” p. 357. 108. Bill, Eagle and the Lion, 147; Pollack, Persian Puzzle, pp. 84–85; N.R. Keddie, Modern Iran: Roots and Results of Revolution (New Haven, CT, 2003), p. 144; Blake, US–Soviet Confrontation in Iran, pp. 165–166. 109. Indeed, the Shah had reportedly stated that “Amini is a US man so the US can support him.” Komer memorandum to Bundy, 1 June 1962, Kennedy Papers NSF Box 322. 110. Current Intelligence Memorandum, CIA Office of Current Intelligence, OCI No. 2412/62, 18 July 1962, Ibid. NSF Box 116; Ali Amini, interview recorded by Habib Ladjevardi, 6 December 1981, Iran Oral History Collection, Harvard University; “Worldgram,” US World & News Reports (30 July 1962), pp. 65–66; “Iran Premier Quits, Holds US to Blame,” Boston Globe (19 July 1962), p. 3. 111. See Komer memorandum to Bundy, 27 July 1962, Kennedy Papers NSF Box 424; reminiscences of Colonel Gratian Yatsevitch. 112. See Hooglund, Land and Revolution in Iran, pp. 45–50; M.A. Katouzian, “Oil Versus Agriculture: a Case of Dual Resource Depletion in Iran,” Journal of Peasant Studies, 5(1978), p. 357. 113. “Iran Peasants Riot, Beat Election Foes,” Los Angeles Times (25 January 1963), p. 11; CIA telegram, 23 January 1963, Kennedy Papers NSF Box 116a. 114. Ironically, in 1960, the Shah wrote that when communist and fascist leaders hold elections and announce 99.9% of the vote was cast for the ruling party, “I wonder how many intelligent people are fooled by that sort of thing.” Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, Mission for my Country (New York, 1961), p. 162. 115. A.M. Ansari, “The Myth of the White Revolution,” Middle Eastern Studies, 38/3(2001) p. 19; Kennedy telegram to the Shah, telegram, 29 January 1963, Kennedy Papers NSF Box 119. 116. Komer to Bundy, memo, 29 January 1963, Ibid. NSF Box 116a. 117. Task Force Report “US Strategy for Iran,” 21 May 1963, Ibid. NSF Box 340. 118. Abrahamian, Between Two Revolutions, 461; Keddie, Modern Iran, 147; Marvin Zonis, The Political Elite of Iran (Princeton, 1971), p. 63; Cottam, Nationalism in Iran, pp. 306–309; A. Ansari, Modern Iran Since 1921: The Pahlavis and After (New York, 2003) p. 160. 119. Rusk telegram to the Shah, 16 July 1963, Kennedy Papers NSF Box 119. 120. Richard Sale “Carter and Iran: From Idealism to Disaster,” Washington Quarterly, 3(1980), p. 86. 121. Ibid. 122. President's News Conference, 12 December 1978, in Alexander and Nanes, United States and Iran, pp. 463–64. 123. Goode, “Reforming Iran,” p. 28. 124. See Ansari, Modern Iran; Keddie, Modern Iran; Ali Gheissari and Vali Nasr Democracy in Iran: History and the Quest for liberty (New York, 2006); Abrahamian, Between Two Revolutions. Similarly, the standard accounts of Kennedy's foreign policy make little to no mention of Iran. See Rabe, Kennedy; Robert Dallek, An Unfinished Life: John F. Kennedy, 1917–1963 (Boston, MA, 2003); Lawrence Freedman, Kennedy's Wars: Berlin, Cuba, Laos, and Vietnam (New York, 2000); James N. Giglio The Presidency of John F. Kennedy (Lawrence, KS, 1991); Latham, Right Kind of Revolution, pp. 143–153. 125. Nemchenok, “Search of Stability,” pp. 341–369. 126. Goode, “Reforming Iran,” pp. 13–29. 127. Summitt, “White Revolution,” p. 568. 128. Ibid., p. 572

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