All age–depth models are wrong, but are getting better
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 12265915 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Mathias Trachsel (0000-0003-0078-5795, University of Bergen, corresponding author), Richard J Telford (0000-0001-9826-3076, University of Bergen) |
| Year | 2016 |
| Volume | 27 |
| Issue | 6 |
| Pages | 860-869 |
| Publication date | 2016-11-03 |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | The Holocene (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0959-6836 • E-ISSN: 1477-0911 |
| Publisher | SAGE Publishing (PUBLISHER • US) |
| DOI | 10.1177/0959683616675939 |
| OpenAlex | W2546781208 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 22 |
| References cited | 28 |
The construction of accurate age–depth relationships and a realistic assessment of their uncertainties is one of the fundamental prerequisites for comparing and correlating late Quaternary stratigraphical proxy records. Four widely used age–depth modelling routines – CLAM, OxCal, Bacon and Bchron – were tested using radiocarbon dates simulated from varved sediment stratigraphies. All methods produce mean age–depth models that are close to the true varve age, but the uncertainty estimation differs considerably among models. Age uncertainties are usually underestimated by CLAM, whereas age uncertainties produced by Bchron are often too large. With OxCal and Bacon, the setting of model-specific parameters influences the estimated uncertainties, which vary from too large to too small. The variability of sediment accumulation rates is underestimated by CLAM but overestimated by Bacon and Bchron. Bayesian age–depth models mainly improve the assessment of uncertainties of age–depth models
Geography · Physical geography · Proxy (statistics · Quaternary · Radiocarbon dating · Sediment · Statistics · Varve · Geological formations and processes · Geology and Paleoclimatology Research · Mathematics · Pleistocene-Era Hominins and Archaeology · Geology · Paleontology
Current practices in building and reporting age-depth models
A multi-proxy study of changing environmental conditions in a Younger Dryas sequence in southwestern Manitoba, Canada — Comment on the paper by Teller et al., Quaternary Research Volume 93, 60–87
Early Holocene interaction of aeolian, alluvial, and lacustrine processes in a dune-dammed valley in the central Nebraska Sand Hills
The importance of effective moisture and landscape controls on diatom assemblages and primary production in Roche Lake, British Columbia, Canada over the past ca. 1800 years
Component age estimates for the Hell Gap Paleoindian site and methods for chronological modeling of stratified open sites - Response to commentary by C. Vance Haynes
The timing and ecological consequences of Pleistocene megafaunal decline in the eastern Andes of Colombia
Hypothetical Influence of Bacterial Communities on the Transfer of 14C-Depleted Carbon to Infaunal Foraminifera
Indian summer monsoon variability and climate-driven weathering since ∼25 ka
Historical Ecologies of Pastoralist Overgrazing in Kenya
Sedimentary unknowns constrain the current use of frequency analysis of radiocarbon data sets in forming regional models of demographic change
Reconstructing Paleoflood Occurrence and Magnitude from Lake Sediments
Chihuahuan Desert Vegetation Development during the Past 10,000 Years According to Pollen and Sediment Data at Upper Arroyo, Saltillo, Mexico
Human-environment dynamics at Lake Burdur (Southwestern Türkiye)
The Guaraní expansion in the Upper Uruguay River. Chronology, colonization strategies, social impacts and environmental changes
Recent Major Themes and Research Areas in the Study of Human-Environment Interaction in Prehistory
The Roman Legacy on European Chestnut and Walnut Arboriculture
A humification-based method toward refining Holocene radiocarbon chronologies
Radiocarbon sampling efforts for high-precision lake sediment chronologies
Early Holocene occurrence of loess in Folldal, east-central southern Norway
Aldborough and the metals economy of northern England, c . AD 345–1700
The Application of Pollen Radiocarbon Dating and Bayesian Age-Depth Modeling for Developing Robust Geochronological Frameworks of Wetland Archives
C Dated Chronology of the Thickest and Best Resolved Loess/Paleosol Record of the LGM from SE Hungary Based on Comparing Precision and Accuracy of Age-Depth Models
Applied Regression Analysis
A Simple Monotone Process with Application to Radiocarbon-Dated Depth Chronologies
All age–depth models are wrong
Methods and code for ‘classical’ age-modelling of radiocarbon sequences
Strictly Proper Scoring Rules, Prediction, and Estimation
Deposition models for chronological records
Flexible paleoclimate age-depth models using an autoregressive gamma process
The intercept is a poor estimate of a calibrated radiocarbon age
Confidence intervals for age estimates and deposition times in late-Quaternary sediment sequences
IntCal13 and Marine13 Radiocarbon Age Calibration Curves 0–50,000 Years cal BP
Recent and Planned Developments of the Program OxCal
Dealing with Outliers and Offsets in Radiocarbon Dating
Radiocarbon Calibration and Analysis of Stratigraphy
Developments in the Calibration and Modeling of Radiocarbon Dates
| Citations per year | 2.75 |
|---|---|
| Citation span | 2018 - 2026 (9) |
| Highly cited | No |