The Bulgarian economy in transition

GDP FOR 1991 WAS PROVISIONALLY ESTIMATED by the Bulgarian statistical office at 138.4 billion leva in current prices, with an expected fall in constant prices equivalent to 16.7%.' The final report on 1991 (March 1993), however, differed substantially-a GDP of 131.1 billion leva in current prices and a fall in constant prices by 11.7% compared with the previous year. Significant changes were recorded in the composition of GDP with respect to final use. For instance, the expected gross fixed capital formation of 13.9 billion leva (current prices) grew finally to 24.8 billion leva while the inventory change rose from 3.8 billion leva to 11.8 billion leva. The official preliminary GDP estimate for 1992 (March 1993) was 195 billion leva, 25 billion leva less than the estimate made on 31 July 1992.2 From the point of view of the composition of GDP, recession prevailed in industry (Table 1). This is generally the most adversely affected sector of the East European economies, as has become fairly obvious by now. If we examine the structural adjustments in the final use of GDP, the situation is slightly different. The more limited fall in consumption than in GDP is logical and clear. Over the three years under consideration consumption decreased by 14.9%, while gross fixed capital formation decreased by 54.4%. In spite of all this, however, gross fixed capital formation's relative share in GDP (in current prices) maintained the quite impressive level of 23.2% in 1992, compared with 33.1% in 1989.3 The patterns of change in the GDP deflators and the main component deflators are worth a mention. The deflator estimates for 1990 and 1992 are acceptable in comparison with the consumer prices index, while those for 1991 are disturbing.4 The differences are quite substantial and hard to explain; 1991 was in many respects a year of crucial importance, first and foremost because economic reform and, more specifically, price liberalisation were initiated then. Difficulties in adapting statistical accounting to unusual circumstances could thus account for the discrepancies. However, 1991 also set the starting point for the basis which could influence outcomes in future years

Bulgarian · Economic policy · Economic system · Economics · Keynesian economics · Linguistics · Macroeconomics · Market economy · Monetary economics · Transition (genetics · Transition Economy · Chemistry · Economic Growth and Productivity · Global Financial Crisis and Policies · Monetary Policy and Economic Impact · Philosophy

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