Real Sector of the Russian Economy

Basic macroeconomic indicators in Russia, 1990-1996 It is reasonable to begin an empirical analysis of the situation during economic reforms with mention of problems in Russian economic data. The analysis is dependent on the old Russian Federation Goskomstat' estimates and new Goskomstat estimates created jointly with the World Bank.2 These data are problematic, though perhaps not as distorted as earlier data on the Soviet Union. Distortion was characteristic of Soviet data especially since 1928. The Soviet political authorities sought by all possible means to demonstrate the superiority of the Soviet economic system over that of the West. The TsSU of the USSR (predecessor of the RF Goskomstat), subservient to the political leadership, used faulty methodologies to exaggerate the economic success of the USSR.3 In the command economy, moreover, participants at every level had strong incentives to portray their activities in the most favourable light. Restructuring and economic reforms have changed the situation in Russia. Under the pressure of severe domestic and international criticism, the USSR and RSFSR TsSU admitted past falsifications. In the late 1980s the statistical bodies were granted more autonomy. The pressures to falsify the real results of economic activity have decreased, and in their daily practice the statistical bodies have begun to adopt methods which are generally accepted in world statistical practice. In the new situation, the behaviour of economic units has radically changed. Most of them have obtained juridical or factual autonomy. The incentives to falsify the results of their activity have been greatly diminished, particularly with regard to the output of goods and services. Moreover, an opposite trend has begun to acquire momentum: economic managers, whether to dodge taxation or for personal enrichment, are understating their successes. In this context, the RF Goskomstat is in a very difficult position; it has had to shift to commonly used statistical methods at a time when the government has given up its former control and when the shadow economy has acquired tremendous momentum. At the same time the government has maintained a certain degree of pressure on statistical bodies to induce them to overstate the real achievements of reform. The

Economic system · Economics · Economy · Estimation · Macroeconomics · Russian economy · Post-Communist Economic and Political Transition · Russia and Soviet political economy

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