Integrating Predictive Modeling and Circular Economy Principles for Sustainable Soybean Agriculture

Bibliographic Data

ID12306303
AuthorsErma Suryani (0000-0002-5840-9242, Department of Information Systems Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember Surabaya Indonesia, corresponding author), Arif Wibisono (Department of Information Systems Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember Surabaya Indonesia), Mudjahidin Mudjahidin (Department of Information Systems Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember Surabaya Indonesia), Alifia Az‐Zahra (Department of Civil Engineering Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember Surabaya Indonesia), Rahmatika Jagad Pramundito (Department of Information Systems Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember Surabaya Indonesia), Gunawan Gunawan (0000-0002-6362-0990, Maluku Agricultural Modernization Implementation Center Maluku Indonesia), Denny Kurniawan (Department of Agriculture and Food Security East Java Provincial Government Surabaya Indonesia)
Year2026
Publication date2026-02-18
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueSustainable Development (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0968-0802 • E-ISSN: 1099-1719
PublisherWiley (PUBLISHER • GB)
DOI10.1002/sd.70719
OpenAlexW7130311589
LanguageEN
References cited33

Indonesia's persistent dependence on soybean imports threatens national food security, a challenge exacerbated by a stark demographic‐agricultural mismatch. This research introduces a novel, integrated approach to sustainable agriculture in East Java by combining System Dynamics (SD) modeling with Circular Economy (CE) principles. Developed using Vensim PLE, the model captures the non‐linear interactions within the regional soybean value cycle, specifically addressing the projected contraction of harvest areas from 238,136 to 134,478 ha by 2025. The novelty of this work lies in using SD to identify the exact economic thresholds where converting agricultural residues into high‐value livestock feed via pelletizer technology triggers a transformative feedback loop. While traditional models focus narrowly on yield, this study demonstrates that the SCN_Pelletizer scenario shifts the sector from a subsistence‐based model to a resilient industrial corridor. Scenario simulations reveal that despite initial capital expenditures, the CE pathway reaches a break‐even point by 2030 and elevates long‐term farmer profits to IDR 36 million/ha by 2040. These findings provide a practical roadmap to bridge a critical supply–demand gap—where the fulfillment ratio is projected to plummet to 15.9%—by diversifying income streams and fostering regional economic resilience

Agriculture · Business model · Circular economy · Novelty · Sustainability · Sustainable development · System dynamics · Transformative learning · Agriculture, Land Use, Rural Development · Climate change impacts on agriculture · Sustainability and Ecological Systems Analysis

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