Iowa Electronic Markets
Forecasting the 2024 US Presidential Election
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 12377355 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Thomas S Gruca (0000-0001-5699-2350, University of Iowa, corresponding author), Thomas A Rietz (0000-0001-9875-4780, University of Iowa) |
| Year | 2024 |
| Volume | 58 |
| Issue | 2 |
| Pages | 258-266 |
| Publication date | 2024-10-15 |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | PS Political Science & Politics (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1049-0965 • E-ISSN: 1537-5935 |
| Publisher | Cambridge University Press (CUP) (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.1017/s1049096524000921 |
| OpenAlex | W4403437739 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 1 |
| References cited | 3 |
We present Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM) forecasts for the popular vote shares in the 2024 US presidential election. We discuss the differences between IEM forecasts and polls, the influence of the first presidential debate, the changes resulting from Biden dropping out of the race, and the degree of uncertainty implied by IEM forecasts. On September 29, the IEM forecast a 9-percentage-point Democratic popular vote margin according to a thinly traded vote-share market and an 85.7% chance the Democrat will receive more votes than the Republican in a thickly traded winner-takes-all market. Using a distribution derived from both markets, the forecasts are for a 6- to 7-percentage-point Democratic margin and 87.0% chance of winning. However, significant uncertainty remains
Economics · Political economy · Political science · Politics · Presidential election · Presidential system · Consumer Market Behavior and Pricing · Law · Media Influence and Politics · Public Administration
| Citations per year | 1 |
|---|---|
| Citation span | 2025 - 2025 (1) |
| Highly cited | No |