Registering Theory-Based Predictions in Political Science

Dados Bibliográficos

ID12377592
AutoresAmy Chasteen Miller (0000-0001-5634-9699, United States Naval Academy, autor correspondente)
Ano2024
Volume58
Fascículo1
Páginas155-161
Data de publicação2024-10-25
Peer ReviewedSim
Open AccessSim
TipoARTICLE
PeriódicoPS Political Science & Politics (JOURNAL)
Identificadores do periódicoISSN: 1049-0965 • E-ISSN: 1537-5935
EditoraCambridge University Press (CUP) (PUBLISHER)
DOI10.1017/s1049096524000404
OpenAlexW4403775120
IdiomaEN
Referências citadas25

How can political scientists rigorously evaluate the predictive power of theories? Many peer-reviewed political science articles include predictions about future outcomes, and scholars make predictions on social media and other public forums. The prevalence of predictions suggests that scholars recognize the utility of leveraging theories for this purpose; however, the predictions often are not made in a manner that allows for rigorously evaluating their accuracy. Building on the increasing popularity of study preregistration in the social sciences, this article proposes “prediction registration” as a means for scholars to publish falsifiable, systematic, and verifiable theory-based predictions. Increasing the rigor of predictive theory testing can advance often-circular debates about accuracy and presents a “win-win” for scholars who aim to test the predictive power of theories. With a more rigorous approach, correct predictions would better demonstrate a theory’s ability to forecast outcomes, and missed predictions would reveal information that can be used to calibrate the theory

Data science · Economics · Epistemology · Falsifiability · Management science · Political science · Politics · Popularity · Positive economics · Power (physics · Predictive power · Publication · Test (biology · Verifiable secret sharing · Computational and Text Analysis Methods · Computer Science · Electoral Systems and Political Participation · Law · Political Science Research and Education