The PollyVote Forecast for the 2024 US Presidential Election
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 12379470 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Andreas Graefe (0000-0001-6406-8811, Hochschule Macromedia, corresponding author) |
| Year | 2024 |
| Volume | 58 |
| Issue | 2 |
| Pages | 306-311 |
| Publication date | 2024-10-15 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | PS Political Science & Politics (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1049-0965 • E-ISSN: 1537-5935 |
| Publisher | Cambridge University Press (CUP) (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.1017/s104909652400101x |
| OpenAlex | W4403442279 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 1 |
| References cited | 9 |
Originally founded in 2004 to improve election forecasting accuracy through evidence-based methods, the PollyVote project applies the principle of combining forecasts to predict the outcome of US presidential elections. The 2024 forecast uses the same methodology as in previous elections by combining forecasts from four methods: polls, expectations, models, and naive forecasts. By averaging within and across these methods, PollyVote predicts a close race, giving Kamala Harris a slight edge over Donald Trump in both the two-party popular vote (50.8 vs. 49.2%) and the Electoral College (276 vs. 262 votes). The forecast gives Harris a 65% chance of winning the popular vote and a 56% chance of winning the Electoral College, making both outcomes toss-ups. Compared to the combined PollyVote, component forecasts that rely on trial-heat polls tend to favor Harris, whereas methods that rely on alternative measures are less optimistic about the Democratic candidate’s chances. The polls may be overestimating Harris’s lead
Economics · Political economy · Political science · Politics · Presidential election · Forecasting Techniques and Applications · Law · Monetary Policy and Economic Impact
The Combination of Forecasts
The PollyVote Forecast for the 2016 American Presidential Election
Combining Forecasts for the 2022 French Presidential Election
The PollyVote Popular Vote Forecast for the 2020 US Presidential Election
Accuracy of Vote Expectation Surveys in Forecasting Elections
Accuracy of Combined Forecasts for the 2012 Presidential Election
Combining Forecasts for the 2021 German Federal Election
Of Issues and Leaders
The 2020 (Re)Election According to the Iowa Electronic Markets
| Unique citing works | 1 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 1 |
| Citation span | 2025 - 2025 (1) |
| Citation velocity | recent |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 1 |