Issues in Presidential Election Forecasting
Election Margins, Incumbency, and Model Credibility
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 12379627 |
|---|---|
| Authors | James E Campbell (0000-0001-6901-6834, University at Buffalo, State University of New York, corresponding author) |
| Year | 2014 |
| Volume | 47 |
| Issue | 2 |
| Pages | 301-303 |
| Publication date | 2014-04-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | PS Political Science & Politics (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1049-0965 • E-ISSN: 1537-5935 |
| Publisher | Cambridge University Press (CUP) (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.1017/s1049096514000067 |
| OpenAlex | W2165969441 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 3 |
| References cited | 15 |
Three issues of presidential election forecasting research are raised. The first concerns the consequences for forecasting models of presidential elections becoming more narrowly decided. A realigned and polarized party system has led to smaller election margins in presidential contests since 1984. This development complicates model estimation and may also have blurred differences between strong and weak forecasting models. The second issue concerns the presidential incumbency advantage. Forecasting research has shed greater light on this important electoral factor. The advantage of presidential incumbency appears to be largely restricted to first party-term incumbents. This exposes what might be seen as a blind spot to electoral accountability. Finally, the issue of forecast model credibility is raised. Several criteria beyond forecast accuracy should be taken into account in assessing whether a forecast model and its prediction are credible
Accountability · Credibility · Econometrics · Economics · Political science · Politics · Presidential election · Presidential system · Electoral Systems and Political Participation · Fiscal Policies and Political Economy · Law · Monetary Policy and Economic Impact
The Timeline of Presidential Elections
The Message Matters
The Miserable Presidential Election of 2012
Election Forecasting
Party Systems and Realignments in the United States, 1868-2004
Incumbency Advantage in U.S. Presidential Elections
National Economic Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections
Ideological Realignment in the U.S. Electorate
The Theory of Conditional Retrospective Voting
Is Polarization a Myth
The Election Is Over
Explaining Politics, Not Polls
The effect of economic events on votes for president
Partisanship and Incumbency in Presidential Elections
| Unique citing works | 3 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 0,25 |
| Citation span | 2014 - 2021 (8) |
| Citation velocity | historical |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 2 |