Delphi in Criminal Justice Policy
A Case Study on Judgmental Forecasting
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 12393219 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Kim Loyens (0000-0002-3080-534X, KU Leuven, corresponding author), Jeroen Maesschalck (0000-0002-0814-6835, KU Leuven), Geert Bouckaert (0000-0002-0282-8106, KU Leuven) |
| Year | 2014 |
| Publication date | 2014-12-08 |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Qualitative Report (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1052-0147 • E-ISSN: 2160-3715 |
| Publisher | Nova Southeastern University (PUBLISHER • US) |
| DOI | 10.46743/2160-3715/2011.1313 |
| OpenAlex | W2143704569 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 1 |
This article provides an in-depth case study analysis of a pilot project organized by the section "Strategic Analysis" of the Belgian Federal Police. Using the Delphi method, which is a judgmental forecasting technique, a panel of experts was questioned about future developments of crime, based on their expertise in criminal or social trends. The results demonstrate how police authorities could implement judgmental forecasting methods like Delphi methodology for the anticipation of future criminal trends, and how this technique, applied under specific conditions, can complement current crime analysis techniques. This article will not focus on criminal trends that were forecasted in the pilot project, but on the preconditions for using the Delphi method in criminal justice policy. Hence, this article could contribute to future applications of judgmental forecasting techniques by practitioners in both criminal justice systems and other policy domains
Anticipation (artificial intelligence · Crime analysis · Criminal investigation · Criminal justice · Criminology · Delphi · Delphi method · Economics · Management science · Political science · Public relations · Sociology · Computer Science · Delphi Technique in Research · Psychology · Artificial Intelligence
| Citations per year | 0.08 |
|---|---|
| Citation span | 2013 - 2013 (1) |
| Highly cited | No |