Congressional Seat Swings

Revisiting Exposure in House Elections

Bibliographic Data

ID12419735
AuthorsRonald Keith Gaddie (University of Oklahoma, corresponding author)
Year1997
Volume50
Issue3
Pages699-699
Publication date1997-09-01
Open AccessNo
TypeARTICLE
VenuePolitical Research Quarterly (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 1065-9129 • E-ISSN: 1938-274X
PublisherSAGE Publishing (PUBLISHER • US)
DOI10.2307/448923
OpenAlexW4250908449
LanguageEN
References cited7

s exposure thesis of partisan change contends that shifts in the partisan composition of Congress are related to the long-term stability of the electoral system.Applying their exposure model to elections from 1962-1994 produces seat change estimates that generally follow the actual data pattern, but these estimates produce large predictive errors.When the exposure model is reestimated using data from 1962-1994, exposure is not significantly related to partisan seat swings.This article advances a seat change model that relies on an alter- nate measure of exposure: the net exposure of the president's party in open seats.Open-seat exposure is significantly related to the partisan seat swing, and substantially improves on the economic evaluation/surgeand-decline/ exposure model of seat change.In an era of high incumbent security and strategic retirement from Congress, the balance of open seats is a better indicator of partisan vulnerability, and better reflects the nature of partisan exposure.Aggregate seat swings in Congress are often related to economic trends and political shifts in the electorate.Changes in the partisan balance of Con- gress are often interpreted as referenda on presidential popularity or on policy

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