Understanding the Factors that Affect the Incidence of Bellwether Counties
A Conditional Probability Model
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 12419817 |
|---|---|
| Authors | B Grofman (0000-0002-2801-3351, University of California, Irvine, CA, USA), Haotian Chen (0000-0002-2816-6403, University of California, Irvine, CA, USA) |
| Year | 2022 |
| Volume | 76 |
| Issue | 1 |
| Pages | 119-126 |
| Publication date | 2022-03-05 |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Political Research Quarterly (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1065-9129 • E-ISSN: 1938-274X |
| Publisher | SAGE Publishing (PUBLISHER • US) |
| DOI | 10.1177/10659129211057601 |
| OpenAlex | W4220717190 |
| Language | EN |
| References cited | 7 |
We update previous work on bellwethers in U.S. presidential elections. Comparing the most recent elections (2000-2020) to those in earlier periods (1960-1980), we see a striking decline in the proportion of bellwethers. We provide a model linking this decline to conditional probability calculations that recognize that (a) a county’s predictive success likelihood varies depending upon whether the winning candidate is going to be a Democrat or going to be a Republican; (b) as polarization rises, the number of potential bellwethers declines; and (c) election competitiveness can matter, but closer elections do not guarantee a greater likelihood of bellwethers. Indeed, we now have very close elections but a very low likelihood of bellwethers
Affect (linguistics · Conditional probability · Econometrics · Economics · Polarization (electrochemistry · Political science · Politics · Presidential election · Presidential system · Statistics · Electoral Systems and Political Participation · Gender Politics and Representation · Law · Mathematics · Media Influence and Politics · Psychology
| Highly cited | No |
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