Modelski’s Long Cycle Revisited
Comparing American Decline to British Deconcentration
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 12433728 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Layton Mandle (United States Army War College, corresponding author) |
| Year | 2025 |
| Volume | 31 |
| Issue | 1 |
| Pages | 417-453 |
| Publication date | 2025-04-17 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Journal of World-Systems Research (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1076-156X • E-ISSN: 1076-156X |
| Publisher | University Library System, University of Pittsburgh (PUBLISHER • US) |
| DOI | 10.5195/jwsr.2025.1301 |
| OpenAlex | W4409540775 |
| Language | EN |
| References cited | 11 |
Despite flourishing after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the American order has been weakened by wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, growing unilateral neo-isolationism within conservative American politics, and the meteoric rise of China as a great power rival. Though theories of historical comparison are often critiqued, some, such as George Modelski’s pattern of long cycles, seem timely to revisit amid this “deconcentration” of world leadership. This work supports Modelski’s historical case-study by applying quantitative measures of power to make statistically informed comparisons between the changes in the distribution of power between British deconcentration (1885–1914), to the current period of supposed American decline. This work finds statistical evidence of American decline in more measures than the British Empire, despite maintaining a wider margin with its rival. China is increasing its power in all measures at a faster rate than the German Empire during its rise to challenger status. Though statistical forecasting raises doubts whether China can near parity in the coming decades, (mis)perceptions of Beijing’s power, domestic American political fracturing, geopolitical flashpoints, escalating regional wars involving partner states, and differing military readiness strategies make global war between the United States and China a near-future possibility worth continued study
Defense, Military, and Policy Studies · Environmental Science
World Out of Balance
Power and liberal order
Bringing the Military Back in
Fear, greed, or garage sale? The analysis of military expenditure in East Asia
Power at Sea
Reconstructing the correlates of war dataset on material capabilities of states, 1816–1985
Kant or Cant
Prediction, Proxies, and Power
Material military power
Hegemonies in the World-System
The crisis of neoliberalism and the future of international institutions
| Citation velocity | historical |
|---|---|
| Highly cited | No |