Is the People's Republic of China's current slowdown a cyclical downturn or a long-term trend? A productivity-based analysis
Dados Bibliográficos
| ID | 12549834 |
|---|---|
| Autores | Chong-En Bai (Tsinghua University), Chong‐En Bai (Tsinghua University), Qiong Zhang (0000-0003-2717-7773, Renmin University of China, autor correspondente) |
| Ano | 2016 |
| Volume | 22 |
| Fascículo | 1 |
| Páginas | 29-46 |
| Data de publicação | 2016-12-08 |
| Peer Reviewed | Sim |
| Open Access | Não |
| Tipo | ARTICLE |
| Periódico | Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy (JOURNAL) |
| Identificadores do periódico | ISSN: 1354-7860 • E-ISSN: 1469-9648 |
| Editora | Routledge (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1080/13547860.2016.1261438 |
| OpenAlex | W2560327954 |
| Idioma | EN |
| Citações recebidas | 4 |
| Referências citadas | 31 |
Whether the People's Republic of China's (PRC) economic slowdown since the 2008 financial crisis is a cyclical downturn or a long-run trend has important policy implications. As productivity is the determinant factor for long-term economic growth and the PRC watches soaring labor cost while no serious unemployment recently, this article tries to understand its slowdown from the supply side. Based on provincial panel data, it first identifies the determinants of productivity growth and then uses counterfactual analysis to simulate effects of the PRC's policy-induced investment boom on its economic growth. It finds that economic openness enhances productivity, whereas economies at higher stages of development on average have lower productivity growth. Second, productivity of economies accumulating more stock of inventory grows more slowly, while the opposite is observed for those with higher labor involvement rates. Third, government size and investment rate both have significantly negative effects on productivity growth. Finally, the diminishing late-mover advantage and the growth in investment rate are both major contributors to the current decline in the PRC's productivity growth. The current economic slowdown does not seem to be a cyclical downturn. Indeed, further reforms are needed to stabilize the PRC's growth
Economic growth · Economics · Investment (military · Labour economics · Macroeconomics · Monetary economics · Panel data · Productivity · Recession · Slowdown · Total factor productivity · Economic Growth and Productivity · Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth · Regional Economic and Spatial Analysis
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| Obras citantes distintas | 4 |
|---|---|
| Citações por ano | 0,44 |
| Intervalo de citações | 2017 - 2026 (10) |
| Velocidade de citação | current |
| Altamente citado | Não |
| Tipos de citação | Neutras: 4 |