Diagnostic evaluation and Bayesian Updating
Practical solutions to common problems
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 12567642 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Barbara Befani (0000-0002-8379-8905, University of Surrey, UK; University of East Anglia, UK, corresponding author) |
| Year | 2020 |
| Volume | 26 |
| Issue | 4 |
| Pages | 499-515 |
| Publication date | 2020-10-01 |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Evaluation (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1356-3890 • E-ISSN: 1461-7153 |
| Publisher | SAGE Publishing (PUBLISHER • US) |
| DOI | 10.1177/1356389020958213 |
| OpenAlex | W3093870421 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 4 |
| References cited | 9 |
This article discusses several practical issues arising with the application of diagnostic principles to theory-based evaluation (e.g. with Process Tracing and Bayesian Updating). It is structured around three iterative application steps, focusing mostly on the third. While covering different ways evaluators fall victims to confirmation bias and conservatism, the article includes suggestions on which theories can be tested, what kind of empirical material can act as evidence and how to estimate the Bayes formula values/update confidence, including when working with ranges and qualitative confidence descriptors. The article tackles evidence packages (one of the most problematical practical issues), proposing ways to (a) set boundaries of single observations that can be considered independent and handled numerically; (b) handle evidence packages when numerical probability estimates are not available. Some concepts are exemplified using a policy influence process where an institution’s strategy has been influenced by a knowledge product by another organisation
Bayes' theorem · Bayesian probability · Conservatism · Data mining · Data science · Econometrics · Empirical evidence · Epistemology · Machine learning · Management science · Operations research · Process (computing · Process tracing · Product (mathematics · Set (abstract data type · Computer Science · Engineering · Environmental and Social Impact Assessments · Evaluation and Performance Assessment · Health Systems, Economic Evaluations, Quality of Life · Mathematics · Artificial Intelligence
Choosing a qualitative comparative analysis solution in multi-method impact evaluation
The potential of consecutive qualitative comparative analysis as a systematic strategy for configurational theorizing
Diagnostic evaluation with simulated probabilities
How to halt deforestation in the Amazon? A Bayesian process-tracing approach
| Citations per year | 0.8 |
|---|---|
| Citation span | 2021 - 2023 (3) |
| Highly cited | No |