Does the Covid-19 pandemic refute probability neglect
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 12596995 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Arkadiusz Sieroń (0000-0002-5817-8747, University of Wrocław, corresponding author) |
| Year | 2020 |
| Volume | 23 |
| Issue | 7-8 |
| Pages | 855-861 |
| Publication date | 2020-06-05 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | No |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Journal of Risk Research (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1366-9877 • E-ISSN: 1466-4461 |
| Publisher | Routledge (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1080/13669877.2020.1772346 |
| OpenAlex | W3033740812 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 3 |
| References cited | 23 |
Cass Sunstein coined the term ‘probability neglect’ to characterize the cognitive bias of disregarding probability when assessing low-probability but high-impact threats. He also related this cognitive bias to terrorism risk, andapplied the concept to the COVID-19 pandemic. In this article, I show that such claims are not justified. I argue that an alternative hypothesis could be that people who downplay the epidemiological threat and do not take precautionary measures suffer from exponential-growth bias. I also show that probability theory, and thus the concept of probability neglect, cannot be easily applied to real-world problems, such as terrorist attacks or pandemics, occurring in a non-ergodic, uncertain environment
2019-20 coronavirus outbreak · Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19 · Infectious disease (medical specialty · Neglect · Outbreak · Pandemic · Psychiatry · Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2 · Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics · Healthcare cost, quality, practices · Healthcare Policy and Management · Medicine · Psychology · Virology
The General Theory of Employment
Money, Kisses, and Electric Shocks
Real estimates of mortality following Covid-19 infection
Estimates of the severity of coronavirus disease 2019
Terrorism and Probability Neglect
Rational choice and the structure of the environment.
The End of Alchemy
Exponential-growth bias and overconfidence
| Unique citing works | 3 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 0,6 |
| Citation span | 2021 - 2022 (2) |
| Citation velocity | historical |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 3 |