Forecasting the Vote for a Third Party
The British Liberals, 1974–2005
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 12607367 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Éric Bélanger (0000-0003-3289-6000, McGill University, corresponding author), Richard Nadeau (0009-0005-1392-3538, Université de Montréal), Michael S Lewis-Beck (0000-0003-0301-5497, University of Iowa) |
| Year | 2010 |
| Volume | 12 |
| Issue | 4 |
| Pages | 634-643 |
| Publication date | 2010-08-25 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | The British Journal of Politics and International Relations (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1369-1481 • E-ISSN: 1467-856X |
| Publisher | SAGE Publishing (PUBLISHER • US) |
| DOI | 10.1111/j.1467-856x.2010.00427.x |
| OpenAlex | W1931132569 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 4 |
| References cited | 24 |
While for multiparty systems the development of vote function forecast models for the incumbent party and the official opposition party is commonplace, only rarely do these models try to forecast the vote for a third party. Can third party vote shares be forecasted with reasonable accuracy? We explore this question within the context of British politics. Our model proposes that the British Liberal party vote is mostly driven by the extent to which the UK electorate approves or disapproves of the official opposition leader. Our results are consistent with the idea that once the decision has been made to punish the incumbent government, a voter must then decide whether to support the official opposition party or another smaller party
Democracy · Divided government · Economics · Government (linguistics · Opposition (politics · Political economy · Political science · Politics · Single non-transferable vote · Third party · Computer Science · Electoral Systems and Political Participation · Energy, Environment, and Transportation Policies · Fiscal Policies and Political Economy · Law · Public Administration
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The Rise of Third Parties in the 1993 Canadian Federal Election
Fonctions de vote et prévisions électorales, une application à la présidentielle française de 2007
The Dynamics of Third-Party Support
The PM and the Pendulum
Methodologies of election forecasting
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| Unique citing works | 4 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 0,27 |
| Citation span | 2011 - 2014 (4) |
| Citation velocity | historical |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 4 |