Accuracy of small area mortality prediction methods
Evidence from Poland
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 12644693 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Agnieszka Orwat-Acedańska (0000-0003-4125-2995, University of Economics in Katowice, corresponding author) |
| Year | 2023 |
| Volume | 41 |
| Issue | 1 |
| Publication date | 2023-12-30 |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Journal of Population Research (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1443-2447 • E-ISSN: 1835-9469 |
| Publisher | Springer Science+Business Media (PUBLISHER • DE) |
| DOI | 10.1007/s12546-023-09326-7 |
| OpenAlex | W4390445828 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 1 |
| References cited | 23 |
We investigate the forecasting accuracy of several simple methods for predicting mortality in small regional areas in Poland. We focus on methods that scale country-level forecasts appropriately and, therefore, can be used by official statistical agencies to improve population projections. We examine data from 379 sub-NUTS-3 districts in Poland for the period 2006–2019, divided into three subperiods. The first period is treated as the training sample and the latter two the testing subperiods. The mortality surface method delivers the most accurate forecasts of the mortality profiles whereas using the district-level standardized mortality rates (SMR) calculated for several broad age groups to scale the country-level mortality forecasts gives the best life expectancy at birth predictions. The latter approach is far better than using the NUTS-2-based standardized mortality rate (SMR), as practiced by the Polish statistical agency. For single age-groups predictions, the SMR-based methods deliver relatively accurate forecasts for young cohorts, but their forecasting accuracy deteriorates significantly with age
Cartography · Econometrics · Economics · Estimation · Geography · Life expectancy · Mortality rate · Population · Scale (ratio · Standardized mortality ratio · Statistics · Demography · Global Health Care Issues · Health disparities and outcomes · Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management · Mathematics
Modeling and Forecasting U. S. Mortality
Biological Aspects of Demography
Estimation of local demographic variation in a flexible framework for population projections
Methods for Small Area Population Forecasts
Coherent mortality forecasts for a group of populations
A Flexible Bayesian Model for Estimating Subnational Mortality
Coherent Mortality Forecasting
Modified logit life table system
A reducible four-parameter system of model life tables
Estimating age- and sex-specific mortality rates for small areas with Topals regression
Smoothing migration intensities with P-Topals
Smoothing and projecting age-specific probabilities of death by Topals
Significance of life table estimates for small populations
| Citations per year | 0.5 |
|---|---|
| Citation span | 2024 - 2024 (1) |
| Highly cited | No |