Shadows of Uncertainty’
Clausewitz's Timeless Analysis of Chance in War
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 12699641 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Thomas Waldman (0000-0003-2718-245X, corresponding author) |
| Year | 2010 |
| Volume | 10 |
| Issue | 3 |
| Pages | 336-368 |
| Publication date | 2010-09-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | No |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Defence Studies (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1470-2436 • E-ISSN: 1743-9698 |
| Publisher | Taylor & Francis (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1080/14702436.2010.503678 |
| OpenAlex | W2088109719 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 2 |
The concept of chance has often been approached by military thinkers in either an unreasonably fatalistic or complacently dismissive manner. However, Carl von Clausewitz (1780‐1831) developed a more accurate and realistic conception. For him, chance in war is an inescapable yet ambiguous phenomenon: it can create opportunities to be exploited or equally dash the best laid plans. Frequently disregarded in theory, Clausewitz maintained that chance, uncertainty, and friction are central to the nature of war, along with the human qualities required to overcome them such as courage, determination, and adaptability. Modern developments have not rendered these insights obsolete and, if anything, they hold even greater relevance to contemporary warfare. Western militaries fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan have been continually challenged by chance events and unforeseeable setbacks. Overconfidence bred by technological superiority has contributed to militaries inadequately capable of confronting unexpected developments in all of war’s dimensions. Understanding Clausewitz’s ideas can help prepare military leaders for the unpredictable in war
Courage · Economics · Environmental ethics · Epistemology · Fatalism · Futures studies · Hubris · Overconfidence effect · Phenomenon · Political science · Positive economics · Relevance (law · Sociology · Timeless · Computer Science · Law · Military History and Strategy · Philosophy · Psychology · Social Psychology · Artificial Intelligence
| Unique citing works | 2 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 0,15 |
| Citation span | 2013 - 2023 (11) |
| Citation velocity | historical |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 2 |