Constituency map of the alternative for Germany (AfD) vote in 2017

Analysing characteristic differences via multiple correspondence analysis

Bibliographic Data

ID12736622
AuthorsLumin Fang (0000-0003-3073-5801, Beijing Sport University, corresponding author)
Year2020
Volume30
Issue2
Pages313-330
Publication date2020-11-17
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessNo
TypeARTICLE
VenueJournal of Contemporary European Studies (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 1478-2790 • E-ISSN: 1478-2804
PublisherTaylor & Francis (PUBLISHER • GB)
DOI10.1080/14782804.2020.1848811
OpenAlexW3101499449
LanguageEN
Citations received1
References cited58

The Alternative for Germany (AfD) party achieved a striking success in the 2017 German federal election. Using structural constituency data, this article explores in which constituencies the AfD gained more votes and why. As it transformed from a single-issue, anti-Euro party with populist tendencies into a right-wing populist party, the AfD refined its position and focus. I argue that at the constituency level, the AfD vote was linked to the issue of immigration and the anti-establishment trend. The demands voiced by AfD voters can be linked to certain political and socioeconomic characteristics of their constituencies which made them susceptible to the AfD’s right-wing populist rhetoric. Applying the statistical technique of multiple correspondence analysis (MCA), I examine the relationship between these characteristics and the AfD vote share at the constituency level. The AfD was likely to win more votes in constituencies characterised by an anti-establishment trend and anti-immigrant/refugee sentiment, the latter of which was linked not to the actual immigration rate, but rather to a combination of a low level of education and a high level of macroeconomic development

Federal election · Geography · German · Immigration · Political economy · Political science · Politics · Refugee · Right wing · Sociology · Electoral Systems and Political Participation · Law · Opinion Dynamics and Social Influence · Populism, Right-Wing Movements

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