Multiregional cohort enrolment projections
Matching methods to enrolment policies
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 12788294 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Stuart H Sweeney (0000-0003-3450-6870, University of California, Santa Barbara, corresponding author), Erin Middleton (0009-0002-8254-6842, University of California, Santa Barbara) |
| Year | 2005 |
| Volume | 11 |
| Issue | 5 |
| Pages | 361-380 |
| Publication date | 2005-01-01 |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Population Space and Place (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1544-8444 • E-ISSN: 1544-8452 |
| Publisher | Wiley (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1002/psp.379 |
| OpenAlex | W2105575525 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 3 |
| References cited | 17 |
School districts throughout California are struggling with uncertainty in primary school enrolment levels. Some areas of the state are witnessing soaring enrolment levels due to immigration and internal migration, while other areas with expensive housing stock and ageing populations are expected to decline. State-level budget problems, the increasing popularity of home/private schooling, and school choice laws at the local level have resulted in extreme uncertainty about the expected enrolment levels at individual schools in some districts. Santa Barbara city schools provide an excellent example of enrolment instability and the costs associated with poor enrolment forecasts. The associated costs include consternation among employees due to last minute hires or reassignments, community unrest as school closures are threatened or carried out, and ineffective capital planning/allocation. This research uses student-level records from the Santa Barbara city schools to evaluate the nature of the instability in past enrolment forecasts. The primary objective of the paper is to propose and to evaluate a Multiregional Cohort-Enrolment projection model that we believe is better suited to prevailing enrolment policies. Although the model as proposed still requires further refinements, it appears promising as a forecasting and policy evaluation tool in districts that are increasing the level of school choice. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd
Business · Census · Demographic economics · Economic growth · Economics · Geography · Immigration · Political science · Popularity · Population · Sociology · Demography · Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth · Housing Market and Economics · Urban, Neighborhood, and Segregation Studies · Finance
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| Citations per year | 0.18 |
|---|---|
| Citation span | 2009 - 2023 (15) |
| Highly cited | No |