Exposure and preparedness for wartime inflation in the EU
Retrospective cluster analysis
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 12846239 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Vivien Czeczeli (0000-0002-9352-123X, Ludovika University of Public Service, corresponding author), Pál Péter Kolozsi (0000-0001-5713-776X, Ludovika University of Public Service), Gábor Kutasi (0000-0001-7381-4935, Ludovika University of Public Service), Ádám Marton (0000-0002-1268-4679, Ludovika University of Public Service) |
| Year | 2024 |
| Volume | 46 |
| Issue | 3 |
| Pages | 236-255 |
| Publication date | 2024-04-04 |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Society and Economy (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1588-970X • E-ISSN: 1588-9726 |
| Publisher | Akadémiai Kiadó (PUBLISHER • HU) |
| DOI | 10.1556/204.2024.00006 |
| OpenAlex | W4393933397 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 1 |
| References cited | 1 |
The impact of the Russian-Ukrainian war on energy prices contributed significantly to European price increases in 2022. The study aims to find a linkage between the performance of 24 EU countries during the energy inflation crisis and their preparedness, vulnerability or exposure. The verified hypotheses reflect on the role of initial conditions of countries and the one-year impact of energy inflation on their economic performance. The two-step analysis first creates six clusters of countries based on their energy, trade, financial and political vulnerability, and preparedness indicators. The second step is to explore the shifts of clusters in expectations on macroeconomic indicators. Specific patterns of country groups are explored in the value and evolution of wartime indicators of inflation, GDP growth, consumer and business confidence, as well as FX volatility. The exploration concludes that the entry variables of clustering are relevant, and the EU countries can be segmented by dependency, energy, financial, and political aspects. Thus, it is possible to verify the distance in risk and exposure among EU economies. The impact variables demonstrated that the extent of the inflationary effect depended on the initial conditions. In addition, the research identified protective short-term factors against energy inflation originating in a trade and war context
Cluster (spacecraft · Inflation (cosmology · Physics · Political science · Preparedness · Computer Science · Global Health Care Issues · Law
| Citations per year | 0.5 |
|---|---|
| Citation span | 2024 - 2024 (1) |
| Highly cited | No |